Deutsche Bank expecting softer auto sales in December

Deutsche Bank released their sales preview for the month of December, with analysts suggesting the US light vehicle SAAR may come close to the 15.3-million-unit mark. This projection reflects a slight decrease from November’s 15.5 million but significantly surpasses December 2022’s figure of 13.6 million. They estimate a YoY increase of approximately 7% in total sales, with retail unit sales rising by 6% and fleet sales experiencing a 15% increase compared to the previous year.

As the sales recovery continues, truck sales have shown a slight YoY increase, reaching approximately 81% of the SAAR, marking a 30bps jump MoM.

“We expect car and light truck sales in December to have resilient results YoY with one less selling day in the month at +3%/+8%, respectively.” Wrote analysts in a note.

In terms of pricing, data collected around the middle of the month indicates a slight increase in December’s ATPs, rising to approximately $45.6k compared to November. However, these prices still reflect a decrease of 6% YoY. At the same time, incentives have risen by about 10% MoM to reach $2,371, marking an 89% increase YoY in December. This increase in incentives aligns with improved inventory levels.

Deutsche Bank anticipates that the Detroit Three automakers will likely report relatively consistent sales figures in December. However, they expect variations among OEMs due to the differences in stock levels compared to last year. This variance enabled certain foreign automakers to comparatively outperform others as they headed into 2023.

By automaker, Deutsche Bank’s analysis suggests that Honda (NYSE:) and Toyota (NYSE:) are likely to achieve noticeable gains in market share, estimated at around +170bps and +140bps respectively. These gains are expected to come primarily at the expense of Ford (NYSE:) (-130bps), STLA (-90bps), and GM (-60bps).

Analysts anticipate that General Motors (NYSE:) will experience a rise of approximately 3% YoY in unit sales. However, for Ford (F), they expect a slightly softer performance, with sales declining by around 3% YoY, partially influenced by having one fewer selling day in the month compared to last year.