Czech central bank likely to continue rate cuts, analysts say: Reuters poll
2024.11.01 11:04
By Jason Hovet
PRAGUE (Reuters) – The Czech National Bank (CNB) is likely to deliver an eighth straight interest rate cut next week as economic growth is expected to stay weak and inflation holds near target, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.
The central bank has slowed the pace of the easing campaign it started at the end of last year, opting for standard 25-basis-point steps at the last two meetings. In total, it has cut its main rate by 275 basis points to 4.25% so far.
Fourteen of 15 analysts in the poll forecast a further 25-bp cut to take the two-week repo rate to 4.00% at the bank’s Nov. 7 policy meeting. One analyst expected no change.
“A 25-bp decline in interest rates is widely anticipated. This expectation is supported by relatively low inflation in comparison to the current interest rate levels and weak GDP growth, as the Czech economy’s recovery remains sluggish and does not generate significant inflationary pressures,” Erste Group Bank unit Ceska Sporitelna said.
It said cuts at the European Central Bank also gave the Czech bank scope to cut. The ECB delivered its third cut this year in October and is debating how far interest rates may need to fall.
In central Europe, Hungary’s central bank – which like its Czech peer has been cutting rates since last year – paused in October as falls in the forint raised price pressure concerns.
The Czech crown has held up better than peers in recent weeks as uncertainty over the U.S. presidential election and a stronger dollar put pressure on central European currencies.
In the economy, slow-growing consumer demand after inflation surges of recent years and manufacturing sluggishness caused by weak demand from trade partners like Germany have slowed the Czech recovery.
Inflation, meanwhile, edged up to 2.6% year-on-year in September, staying in the 1-percentage-point tolerance band around the 2% target.
The bank’s board has said it would be cautious with further cuts. Rate-setter Jan Prochazka said in an interview last month that the bank could continue easing policy given weaker growth abroad and a slow domestic demand recovery, but must be mindful of inflation hotspots, like in the services sector.
Some analysts said the bank might pause its easing campaign in December. The poll expected rates to continue falling next year, with the median forecast putting the main rate at 3.00% in the third quarter.
