CTA stock exposure is long US, short Europe, UBS analysts say

Investing.com — UBS analysts said in a note Wednesday that Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) have adopted a “risk-on” stance, with a notable preference for U.S. equities over European and Latin American stocks.

According to the firm’s biweekly update on CTAs’ positioning and flows, equity beta exposure has remained stable despite subdued momentum across global markets in November.

“CTAs’ overall equity beta is close to its long-term average,” UBS noted, highlighting that the bulk of their equity risk is expressed in relative terms: long U.S. versus short EU and LatAm.

This positioning is said to reflect a broader divergence in market sentiment between regions.

In bond markets, UBS said CTAs have made significant sales in U.S. and Japanese durations, offloading $25 to $30 million in DV01 exposure since the last update.

However, UBS expects European bonds to attract inflows, with Korean and Italian bonds highlighted as “high conviction trades” for CTAs.

Currency-wise, CTAs continue to favor a stronger U.S. dollar. UBS pointed out that recent rounds of dollar buying, totaling $50 to $60 billion, have left little room for additional upside.

The firm also anticipates profit-taking in currencies such as the Indian rupee (INR) and Canadian dollar (CAD), though the dollar remains the model’s “main conviction.”

On commodities, CTAs have pivoted from selling metals to focusing on energy and agricultural assets, with a bullish outlook on these sectors.

Overall, current CTA signals reflect a bullish stance on U.S. stocks and credit markets, a bearish view on U.S., Australian, and U.K. bonds, and mixed positioning in commodities.

The strategic allocation underscores CTAs’ tilt toward the U.S. amid global economic uncertainties, with hedges in gold and the U.S. dollar serving as protection against risk-off events, UBS noted.