Crude oil largely flat; Caution ahead of debt ceiling meeting

Investing.com — Oil prices traded largely unchanged Monday, with traders cautious ahead of the resumption of U.S. debt ceiling negotiations while supply concerns add support. 

By 09:30 ET (13:30 GMT), futures traded 0.1% lower at $71.59 a barrel, while the contract fell 0.1% to $75.52 a barrel.

U.S. President Joe Biden and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are set to meet later this session to try and agree on a deal to raise the more than $31 trillion debt ceiling.

Concerns that a failure to come up with an acceptable compromise have weighed heavily on the market over the recent weeks, as this would result in the U.S. defaulting on its debt obligations, likely plunging the global economy into recession.

The U.S. Treasury has warned that the government could run out of money to pay its bills as soon as June 1.

That said, both crude benchmarks managed to post gains last week, ending four straight weeks of heavy declines, helped by the U.S. starting to refill its Strategic Petroleum Reserve as well as the supply disruptions in Canada, due to early wildfires in the crude-rich Alberta province. 

Additionally, the latest data from showed the U.S. oil rig count fell by 11 over the last week, to its lowest count since June 2022.

“A slowdown in U.S. drilling activity is a concern for the oil market, which is expected to see a sizable deficit over the second half of the year,” said analysts at ING, in a note. 

“Producers appear to be responding to the weaker price environment, rather than expectations for a tighter market later in the year.”

This brings the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, firmly into focus, with its next meeting in early July. 

The cartel surprised the market with an output cut at the last meeting, which came into effect at the start of this month. However, this has done little to support crude prices, implying the members may be looking at a further reduction in production.

The fact U.S. producers are not increasing in number will be good news for OPEC+, ING added, “as it suggests that they will be able to continue supporting prices without the risk of losing market share to U.S. producers.”

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