Copper prices vulnerable to downside: BCA
2024.10.29 10:28
Investing.com — Copper prices face downward pressure as slowing demand growth is outpaced by resilient supply, according to BCA Research in a note this week.
BCA warned that the metal’s market fundamentals suggest prices are vulnerable over the next six months.
“Investors’ purchases of copper have been supporting prices, even as demand growth has been slowing down and has fallen below the pace of supply growth,” BCA stated.
The research firm expects this dynamic to shift further toward oversupply, creating downward pressure on prices.
Weaker Chinese demand is also cited as a key headwind. BCA highlighted that even if Beijing introduces meaningful stimulus measures to boost the Chinese economy, “it will probably take at least six months before the rally in copper prices commences in earnest.”
Until then, sluggish demand from China will weigh on the market. The outlook for copper demand outside of China is said to be similarly bleak.
“Investors should not bet on an acceleration in ex-China copper consumption as the global manufacturing and industrial cycles are on the verge of renewed contraction,” BCA warned.
In the short term, BCA sees few reasons for optimism. “It is premature to bet on a copper demand acceleration over the coming months,” the report emphasized.
Instead, BCA suggests that the better opportunity to adopt a bullish stance on copper and related mining stocks will emerge “in the coming six-to-nine months” as market conditions potentially stabilize.
For now, the research firm cautions investors against expecting any near-term recovery in copper prices, pointing to the combination of oversupply and weak demand as persistent obstacles.
