China’s Nov bank lending seen doubling as stimulus kicks in: Reuters poll

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2024.12.09 03:02

By Liz Lee

BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s new yuan loans are expected to have almost doubled in November from October, a Reuters poll showed on Monday, demonstrating firmer credit demand as Beijing’s recent efforts to prop up economic growth lift confidence.

likely issued 990 billion yuan ($136.02 billion) in net new yuan loans last month, the median of 20 economist estimates showed, up from October’s 500 billion yuan but lower than the 1.09 trillion yuan issued in the same month a year earlier.

Banks distributed 16.52 trillion yuan in new loans in the first 10 months of the year, versus 20.49 trillion yuan a year earlier.

China’s economy charted 4.6% growth in the third quarter, the slowest since early 2023 but ahead of forecast, as it battled a protracted property crisis and limp domestic demand.

However, Chinese lawmakers have ramped up policy stimulus since late September to tackle a property market downturn and ballooning local government debt, aiming to steady the economy for a 5% growth target this year.

The government launched a $1.4 trillion debt package last month to ease local government balance sheets and unveiled tax incentives on home and land transactions to spur demand and ease developers’ financial burden. More measures were in the pipeline.

Top Chinese leaders will meet to discuss 2025 policies and goals at the closed-door annual Central Economic Work Conference this month.

Government advisers have already urged more stimulus ahead of Donald Trump’s entering the White House next month. Ahead of his second term, Trump has been assembling a policy team that is hawkish towards China.

Trump had pledged tariff hikes in excess of 60% before he won the White House and last month vowed an additional 10% tariff as soon as he takes office.

Barclays (LON:) Research, which expects a modest recovery in the current quarter, viewed Trump’s latest tariff threat as not just a tactic to push China toward curbs on fentanyl flows, but also potentially “the start of a stream of new tariffs.”

Outstanding yuan loans likely rose 7.9% in November from a year earlier, the poll showed, slower than 8.0% in October.

Broad M2 money supply growth in November was seen at 7.5%, unchanged from the 7.5% in October.

An acceleration in government bond issuance could help boost growth in total social financing (TSF), a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy that includes off-balance sheet forms of financing, which slowed to a record low of 7.8% in October from 8.0% in September.