China’s home price outlook for 2024, 2025 worsens: Reuters poll

08/30/2024

2 minutes read

2024.08.30 03:00

By Liangping Gao and Ryan Woo

BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s home prices will fall at a faster pace that previously forecast this year and next, a Reuters poll showed, as support policies from Beijing struggle to help the property sector find a bottom.

The poll showed home prices would fall 8.5% in 2024, versus a 5.0% decline tipped in a previous survey in May. Prices are likely to dip 3.9% in 2025 from an unchanged figure forecast in May.

“The actual source of funding for property developers has shrunk more seriously, affecting the release of housing demand,” said Ma Hong, senior analyst at GDDCE Research Institution.

“My house price forecasts have been revised down from May, as cash flow pressures on some big real estate companies will continue to mount, widening risk exposure and putting pressure on confidence in the property market,” said Ma.

A protracted property crisis since 2021 has led to bloated inventories of unsold apartments that have crippled developers’ cash flows and weighed heavily on home prices, consumer confidence and economic activity.

Chinese policymakers have intensified efforts to support the sector, which at its peak accounted for a quarter of the economy, including reducing mortgage rates and lowering home buying costs.

The poll of 10 analysts from Aug. 26-29 showed property sales likely shrank 16.0% in 2024, steeper than the 10.0% slump forecast in the previous poll, while investment was expected to fall 10.3% from the 10.0% decline forecast in May.

“The uncertainty of economic environment also adversely impacts on homebuying decisions. Despite the continuous rollout of supportive policies, they are not strong enough to reverse the downward trend,” said Wang Xingping, a senior analyst at Fitch Bohua.

Chinese leaders in July pledged to continue to support the delivery of unfinished projects and turn unsold apartments into affordable housing, in order to prop up the sector.

Beijing’s plan to resolve its property mess is off to a slow start. Only 4% of a 300 billion yuan ($42.30 billion) relending scheme to help mop up residential inventory has been drawn by local governments and state firms, central bank data shows.

UBS Investment Bank this week lowered its 2024 and 2025 forecasts for China’s GDP growth to 4.6% and 4%, from 4.9% and 4.6%, respectively, due to a deeper-than-expected property downturn.

The bank expects more supportive policies for the rest of 2024, including faster fiscal spending, more government bond issuance, an expansion in equipment and durable goods upgrade and trade-in, a little more monetary easing.