China Jan-Sept fiscal revenue growth slows amid shaky recovery

BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s fiscal revenue grew 8.9% in the first nine months, decelerating from a 10% gain in January-August, official data showed, as its economic recovery remained on shaky ground.

Fiscal revenue hit 16.67 trillion yuan ($2.28 trillion)during January-September, while fiscal expenditure rose 3.9% to 19.79 trillion yuan, data from the finance ministry showed on Tuesday.

In September alone, fiscal revenue fell 1.3% year-on-year, compared with a 4.6% fall in August, according to Reuters calculations based on the ministry’s data.

Fiscal spending was up 5.2%, cooling from a 7.2% rise in August.

Thanks to recent policy support, China’s economy grew at a faster-than-expected pace in the third quarter while September activity indicators largely surprised on the upside, though economists say there are still some significant weak spots, particularly in the property market, which remains in a deep contraction.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China could achieve its full-year growth target of around 5% if fourth quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth is above 4.4%.

Various brokerages including JP Morgan and Nomura have lifted their forecast for China’s 2023 economic growth.

Some government advisers are recommending China lift its 2024 budget deficit target beyond the 3% of GDP set for this year, which would allow Beijing to issue more bonds to revive the economy, policy insiders and economists have told Reuters.

($1 = 7.3082 renminbi)

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