Capitulation Common At Market Bottoms
2022.06.16 20:31
The S&P 500 is down over 22% (peak-to-trough).
Unfortunately, the largest declines in equities have historically occurred as a result of recessions, and the odds are high that we are going to be entering one soon. The bear markets of 2020 and 2008 both occurred during recessions and saw declines of 34% and 56%, respectively.
There are several technical indicators to analyze when trying to determine a bottom in a long-term market decline. A common one is the VIX, referred to as the fear index.
Typically, the VIX will rise to significantly elevated levels at market bottoms, a reflection of investors rushing to sell in mass. This is referred to as capitulation, and we are not there yet.
Below is a chart of the S&P 500 in the upper panel and the VIX (10-day moving average) in the lower panel. Notice how the VIX is currently rising but is nowhere close to the elevated levels seen at the last two bear market bottoms.
