Canada’s economy unexpectedly stalled in Q4; January rebound likely
2023.02.28 09:24
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A worker assembles bullet fairings for the Global 7500 aircraft at Bombardier Saint-Laurent Manufacturing Centre in Montreal, Quebec, Canada November 22, 2021. REUTERS/Christinne Muschi
OTTAWA (Reuters) -The Canadian economy recorded zero growth in the final three months of 2022, massively underperforming expectations, though economic activity likely rebounded with a 0.3% increase in January, Statistics Canada data showed on Tuesday.
The 0.0% growth reading in fourth-quarter gross domestic product capped five consecutive quarterly increases and missed analysts’ average forecast of a 1.5% rise. It was also well below the Bank of Canada’s forecast for 1.3% annualized GDP growth in the quarter.
The economy contracted 0.1% in December from November, also below analysts’ expectations that GDP would be unchanged in the month.
Still, Statscan said the economy likely started 2023 on a stronger footing, with increases in sectors including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction and wholesale trade indicating a 0.3% rise.
The Canadian dollar was trading 0.1% lower at 1.3587 to the greenback, or 73.60 U.S. cents, after the data were released.
Quarterly GDP was impacted by slower inventory accumulations and declines in business investment in machinery and equipment as well as housing, Statscan said. That offset higher household and government spending and improved net trade, the agency said.
The Bank of Canada, which has raised its benchmark interest rate at a record pace to tame high inflation, last month forecast that the economy would stall and could tip into recession during the first three quarters of this year.
The bank’s latest quarterly survey of businesses also showed that Canadian firms expect a mild recession over the next year because higher interest rates are curbing investment plans and consumer spending.
