Canaccord sees Tesla topping expectations for profit, deliveries

Investing.com — Canaccord Genuity analysts are optimistic about Tesla (NASDAQ:)’s upcoming 3Q24 results, predicting the electric vehicle giant will exceed market expectations for both profit and deliveries.

The firm revised its delivery and earnings estimates based on its analysis of global data, spanning around 40 countries.

“Our enhanced database now covers delivery data for ~40 countries on a monthly basis,” Canaccord noted, highlighting their improved tracking system for Tesla deliveries.

They said that despite the challenging global automotive environment, Tesla’s performance has remained strong.

Canaccord’s updated estimates project Tesla’s 3Q24 deliveries at 469.2k vehicles, compared to the consensus estimate of 458k. While this is slightly lower from the previous estimate of 480k, it still signals solid growth.

The firm noted that “September is typically the highest sales month in the quarter,” which they accounted for in their revisions.

The firm also maintains a positive outlook for the rest of the year, projecting total 2024 deliveries of approximately 1.85 million vehicles, a 2.4% year-over-year increase, above the FactSet consensus of 1.78 million.

In terms of profitability, Canaccord has adjusted its 3Q24 non-GAAP EPS estimate from $0.98 to $0.75, still significantly ahead of the $0.61 consensus.

This revision takes into account Tesla’s aggressive pricing strategies aimed at boosting demand in key markets. The analysts cited strong sales momentum in China and attractive financing options globally as key drivers for the positive outlook.

Looking ahead, Canaccord maintains its 4Q24 delivery estimate of 552k vehicles, implying a substantial 17.7% quarter-over-quarter increase. They base this on Tesla’s historical patterns, noting the company has averaged a 20.4% quarter-over-quarter gain between 3Q and 4Q since 2019.