BTC price at 11x S&P 500 signals Bitcoin is ‘rolling over’ — Analyst
2024.08.28 08:40
Bitcoin (BTC) is still “rolling over” as its value versus the S&P 500 stays well clear of all-time highs.
In his latest analysis on X, Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, suggested that the risk-asset race “may be over.”
McGlone: Bitcoin suffering from a “hangover”
Bitcoin has struggled to match its latest all-time high from March, but another metric suggests deeper systemic weakness.
BTC/USD, McGlone notes, is currently around 11 times the value of the S&P 500 — which is itself near all-time highs.
In the first quarter of 2020, Bitcoin was on top, reaching 15 times the S&P in a record which has never been beaten. By contrast, the future may see a 50% drop from that time.
“Is the fastest horse signaling the race is over?” McGlone queried.
“At about 11x now, the Bitcoin/S&P 500 peak was 15x in 1Q20 and this years lower high was 14x. The biggest money pump in history and US ETF launches in past tense may suggest a hangover, pendulum swing back toward 7x Bitcoin/SPX.”
Bitcoin/S&P 500 chart. Source: Mick McGlone/X
In subsequent interactions, he confirmed his theory that Bitcoin continues to “roll over.”
“The fastest horse in the race may be signaling the race is over,” he wrote while responding to a question over Bitcoin’s relatively lackluster performance versus other risk assets.
As Cointelegraph reported, that performance stands out versus that of gold as well as the S&P 500. XAU/USD saw new all-time highs of its own this month.
XAU/USD 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
BTC price risks “lower low” despite $60,000 rebound
BTC price action meanwhile continued to chop around $60,000 ahead of the Aug. 28 Wall Street open, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
Related: Bitcoin exchanges are witnessing 3rd-biggest net daily outflow of 2024
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
After a snap liquidation cascade overnight, BTC/USD saw a fresh visit to $58,000 before halting its downside.
“Still no break in the trend,” popular trader Crypto Chase determined on the day, referencing a multi-month consolidation phase following the March highs.
“The bright side of all this consolidation is that a trend break should be a clear signal to all time highs. The not so bright side is that a lower low could be next (although I’d see that as a buying opportunity / should be bottom before ATH’s).”
BTC/USDT perp chart. Source: Crypto Chase/X
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
