BTC price 8% off all-time high — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
2024.07.22 04:50
Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week as a serious comeback — and a shot at all-time highs — continues to take shape.
Fresh from 12% weekly gains, BTC price strength shows little sign of slowing down as final resistance approaches.
Beyond is a return to price discovery — will bulls finally get their wish after four months of consolidation?
How Bitcoin behaves going forward depends on multiple factors, analysts say. A combination of institutional demand, sell-side pressure, geopolitical curveballs and inflation are all due to contribute to crypto market volatility.
On high timeframes, the picture is nonetheless optimistic: after its latest all-time highs in March, BTC/USD is still retesting its old ones as support.
However, day-to-day moves can easily upend sentiment in an instant, especially around the crucial resistance zone in which the price now finds itself.
Behind the scenes, meanwhile, Bitcoin miners are preparing to emerge from a capitulation phase, which traditionally results in significant BTC price gains.
Cointelegraph takes a closer look at the current landscape in what is already a seminal month for Bitcoin.
New all-time highs return to BTC price targets
After what one analyst called an “extremely explosive move” last week, Bitcoin enjoyed the ideal weekly close at over $68,000.
This came courtesy of news that United States President Joe Biden would not stand for reelection in November.
BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
Despite volatility in both directions, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows BTC/USD hitting $68,486, its highest level since June 12 and just 7.75% from all-time highs.
“Looking very good for bulls thus far,” popular trader Skew summarized in his latest market update on X.
Calling the weekly close “very important,” Skew said that $65,000 should at least remain as support on higher timeframes if bulls want to maintain control.
“Otherwise early week if there’s clear market chasing on the bid, $70K – $80K becomes the target for liquidity to take (ask liquidity),” he continued.
BTC/USD chart. Source: Skew/X
The analysis also touched on the relative strength index (RSI) signals, which have provided clear advance notice of impending upside.
Eyeing Fibonacci extension levels, fellow trader Daan Crypto Trades made similar predictions about possible BTC price targets.
“So far so good,” he commented alongside a chart.
“We’re still in the bigger ranger but if we’d start breaking higher the green boxes are the area’s to watch for me.”
BTC/USD chart with Fibonacci extension levels. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X
US PCE due as markets digest Biden exit
Biden’s announcement, after some snap volatility, gave Bitcoin bulls fresh fuel to launch higher as markets cemented their bets on a Republican election victory.
The party’s presidential candidate, Donald Trump, has incorporated a pro-Bitcoin stance into his election policy. As Cointelegraph reported, Trump’s attempted assassination earlier this month drove the initial wave of BTC price upside.
Now, attention is turning once again to economic issues, with key US inflation data set for release.
This will come in the form of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index print, known to be the Federal Reserve’s “preferred” inflation measure.
This is due on July 26 and will come a day after Q2 GDP and rolling unemployment figures, making for a potentially volatile end to the week for risk assets and crypto.
Commenting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter said that “all eyes” are now on PCE,
“Huge week ahead with the July Fed meeting just 10 days away,” it wrote in part of an X thread, referring to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) gathering at which Fed officials will decide on any adjustments to benchmark interest rates.
The latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool reflect market expectations that no rate shifts are likely until the next FOMC meeting in September.
Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group
“More evidence of disinflation would help lock in expectations for rate cuts starting with the Fed’s September meeting,” trading firm Mosaic Asset added in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic,” on July 21.
Bitcoin miners poised for “capitulation” exit
For Bitcoin miners, the hard times that began after April’s block subsidy halving event may be almost over.
The latest data from the hash ribbons indicator, tracked by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, which compares two iterations of Bitcoin’s hashrate, is teasing a recovery from a multi-month “capitulation” period.
Bitcoin hash ribbons zoomed in chart. Source: Glassnode
Such periods occur when near-term hashrate is comparatively low, and is shown by hash ribbons as the 30-day moving average falling below its 60-day counterpart.
During Bitcoin’s history, such phases have been common, even in bull markets — but it is the resulting BTC price recovery once they end that has traders’ attention.
As Cointelegraph reported, the last capitulation phase ended in August 2023, after which BTC/USD nearly doubled by the end of the year after a brief dip to $25,000.
The mining hashrate itself hit its highest levels since early June last week, passing 690 exahashes per second (EH/s), Glassnode data shows.
Bitcoin mean hash rate. Source: Glassnode
“Coinbase premium” returns for Ether ETF week
This week marks another seminal moment for the crypto industry’s institutional adoption journey — but this time, the focus is on largest altcoin Ether (ETH).
Six months after the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) went live, Ethereum ETFs are due to launch.
The implications for ETH price action remain unknown, but traders are bracing for the kind of volatility which hit BTC/USD at the start of the year.
“Multiple spot ETFs will go live in the next days – enabling hedge funds & pensioners to buy ETH more easily. ETFs pushed Bitcoin a lot higher – will it do the same for ETH?” popular trader Jelle queried in part of an X post on the topic.
ETH/USD remains relatively cool compared to Bitcoin despite the ETF narrative, up around 4% over the past week compared to Bitcoin’s 7%.
Source: Daan Crypto Trades
Inflows to the spot Bitcoin ETFs meanwhile remain firmly in the spotlight after a week of record results — even as US stock markets retraced.
Daan Crypto Trades showed this success reflected in the so-called “Coinbase premium” — the difference in BTC prices on largest US exchange Coinbase.
“The Coinbase Premium has moved back into a premium. This is generally healthy as it shows interest by US investors (and ETFs),” he summarized.
Bitcoin Coinbase premium vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X
Bitcoin bears have “gone silent”
While calls for a BTC price breakdown have disappeared from social media this month, data shows the extent to which Bitcoin bears have lost their grip on the market narrative.
Related: Bitcoin price advance toward $68K sets a bullish path for SOL, ICP, GRT and BONK
According to research firm Santiment, social volumes for terms such as “sell” or “bearish” are dropping. Bulls, however, remain “afraid of ‘getting it wrong’” on price trajectory.
“The crowd’s gone silent after Bitcoin and crypto have enjoyed a somewhat surprising rebound the past 2 weeks,” it wrote in X commentary on July 22.
“Those vocal about an impending bear market in early July have essentially disappeared as BTC has neared $70K once again.”
Bitcoin market sentiment chart. Source: Santiment/X
Crypto market sentiment meanwhile stood in “greed” territory as the week began, per data from the classic sentiment gauge, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measured 70/100.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
