Brazil’s Lula maintains big lead over Bolsonaro ahead of October election -poll
2022.07.29 01:50
Brazil’s former president and presidential frontrunner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva waves during an annual meeting of the Brazilian scientific community at the University of Brasilia, in Brasilia, Brazil, July 28, 2022. REUTERS/Adriano Machado
SAO PAULO (Reuters) -Former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s lead over incumbent far-right President Jair Bolsonaro slipped one percentage point from 19 to 18 points ahead of the October election, a survey by pollster Datafolha showed on Thursday.
Lula drew 47% voter support in the poll against Bolsonaro’s 29%, compared with 47% and 28%, respectively, in June.
If the vote were held today, Lula would win the election outright with 53% of the valid votes, avoiding a second-round runoff required if no candidate gets more than 50% of the unspoiled ballots, the pollster said.
Lula governed Brazil for two terms in 2003-2010 when the country grew fast due to a commodities super-boom, allowing his administration to raise millions of people from poverty and leave office with record popularity.
A Lula victory would represent an astounding comeback by the 76-year-old former union leader who spent 580 days in prison on corruption convictions that were later annulled.
Bolsonaro, a populist firebrand, has courted voters by ramping up welfare spending, while pushing to bring down fuel prices, which had been stoking high inflation. His allies in Congress passed a Constitutional amendment allowing his government to exceed spending limits in an election year.
But Datafolha said the effects of the welfare benefits have yet to be felt on the electorate, as monthly stipend payments only start in August.
Still, Bolsonaro gained 3 percentage points among low wage earners on less than 2,424 reais ($467) a month, though Lula still holds a wide advantage in this segment at 54% to 23%, Datafolha said.
The poll showed that Bolsonaro’s repeated criticism of Brazil’s voting system, which has raised fears that he might not concede defeat and could try to foster a coup, has not increased his negative rejection numbers, Datafolha said.
Datafolha interviewed 2,556 Brazilians of voting age (16 years) on Wednesday and Thursday. The poll has a margin of error of 2 percentage points up or down.
($1 = 5.1838 reais)
