Economic news

Brazil’s economy expected to have grown at solid pace in second quarter

2024.09.02 09:32

By Gabriel Burin

BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) – Brazil’s economy kept growing at a solid pace last quarter compared to the first three months of the year, supported by household expenditure, a Reuters poll predicted.

But higher imports of goods and services likely weighed on the country’s growth after surpassing less-dynamic exports at the start of 2024 due to a strong foreign exchange rate, which has depreciated recently.

Second-quarter gross domestic product figures, scheduled for Tuesday, are forecast to show a 0.9% expansion versus the January-March period, when the economy advanced 0.8%, according to the median forecast of 18 analysts polled Aug. 28-Sept. 2. 

“We estimate the Brazilian economy grew 0.9% on the quarter, 2.7% yearly… likely supported by resilient private consumption benefiting in part from strong labor markets and rising real wages,” Barclays economists wrote in a report.

While public spending contributed with an increase in social benefit payments, as well as aid related to floods in April and May, “on the downside, the external sector was likely a drag for growth due to higher imports,” they added.

In a report, Santander (BME:) analysts saw a 7.8% quarterly rise in imports versus a much lower 1.3% gain in exports. In the first quarter, imports and exports grew 6.5% and 0.2% respectively, as Brazilians piled into foreign goods and services.

Meanwhile, from the point of view of supply, total industrial production, including mining, should have expanded by 1.2%, an advance partly offset by a 2.4% contraction in the smaller farm sector, according to Santander.

On an annual basis, economic growth was seen in the survey at 2.7% in the second quarter, the highest since 3.5% in the same period of 2023, following the inauguration of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva at the beginning of last year.

“Brazil’s growth is particularly surprising as this economy could grow close to 3% for the second consecutive year, an average rate that outperforms the other countries of the region in 2023 and 2024,” J.P. Morgan economists wrote in a report.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A drone view shows the Central Bank headquarters building during sunset in Brasilia, Brazil, June 11, 2024.  REUTERS/Adriano Machado/File Photo

“We think this strength will be extended through the third quarter but foresee some deceleration going forward as, for the first time in a while, both monetary and fiscal policies will be restrictive for growth.”

Last week, Lula signalled he would accept a potential rate hike from his central bank chief nominee for 2025-2028. At the same time, the finance ministry vowed to fulfill its promise of fiscal restraint by year-end.

(Reporting and polling by Gabriel Burin; Editing by Ross Finley and Christina Fincher)



Source link

Related Articles

Back to top button
bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) $ 82,855.20 1.23%
ethereum
Ethereum (ETH) $ 1,935.69 0.43%
tether
Tether (USDT) $ 1.00 0.01%
xrp
XRP (XRP) $ 2.29 1.89%
bnb
BNB (BNB) $ 627.13 1.11%
solana
Solana (SOL) $ 125.65 1.67%
usd-coin
USDC (USDC) $ 1.00 0.01%
cardano
Cardano (ADA) $ 0.705018 1.71%
dogecoin
Dogecoin (DOGE) $ 0.168503 2.60%
tron
TRON (TRX) $ 0.241098 8.90%
staked-ether
Lido Staked Ether (STETH) $ 1,934.80 0.50%
wrapped-bitcoin
Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) $ 82,672.15 1.24%
leo-token
LEO Token (LEO) $ 9.78 0.07%
chainlink
Chainlink (LINK) $ 13.96 0.64%
the-open-network
Toncoin (TON) $ 3.59 4.13%
usds
USDS (USDS) $ 1.00 0.00%
stellar
Stellar (XLM) $ 0.27526 1.25%
wrapped-steth
Wrapped stETH (WSTETH) $ 2,315.63 0.53%
hedera-hashgraph
Hedera (HBAR) $ 0.189784 0.44%
pi-network
Pi Network (PI) $ 1.16 13.00%
avalanche-2
Avalanche (AVAX) $ 19.08 1.05%
shiba-inu
Shiba Inu (SHIB) $ 0.000013 2.56%
sui
Sui (SUI) $ 2.29 3.60%
mantra-dao
MANTRA (OM) $ 7.03 0.27%
litecoin
Litecoin (LTC) $ 90.44 1.74%
polkadot
Polkadot (DOT) $ 4.49 3.04%
bitcoin-cash
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 335.34 0.35%
bitget-token
Bitget Token (BGB) $ 4.61 3.62%
ethena-usde
Ethena USDe (USDE) $ 1.00 0.01%
weth
WETH (WETH) $ 1,935.70 0.35%
binance-bridged-usdt-bnb-smart-chain
Binance Bridged USDT (BNB Smart Chain) (BSC-USD) $ 1.00 0.24%
hyperliquid
Hyperliquid (HYPE) $ 14.27 8.21%
whitebit
WhiteBIT Coin (WBT) $ 28.19 0.94%
wrapped-eeth
Wrapped eETH (WEETH) $ 2,056.96 0.51%
monero
Monero (XMR) $ 209.06 1.28%
uniswap
Uniswap (UNI) $ 6.40 1.44%
susds
sUSDS (SUSDS) $ 1.05 0.07%
aptos
Aptos (APT) $ 5.41 1.61%
okb
OKB (OKB) $ 53.74 5.24%
dai
Dai (DAI) $ 1.00 0.01%
near
NEAR Protocol (NEAR) $ 2.59 2.07%
pepe
Pepe (PEPE) $ 0.000007 1.21%
internet-computer
Internet Computer (ICP) $ 5.83 1.11%
mantle
Mantle (MNT) $ 0.814335 0.05%
gatechain-token
Gate (GT) $ 21.92 0.79%
ethereum-classic
Ethereum Classic (ETC) $ 17.77 0.22%
ondo-finance
Ondo (ONDO) $ 0.847338 1.62%
tokenize-xchange
Tokenize Xchange (TKX) $ 32.92 1.98%
aave
Aave (AAVE) $ 171.24 2.09%
coinbase-wrapped-btc
Coinbase Wrapped BTC (CBBTC) $ 82,803.19 1.37%