BofA global fund manager survey: Investors nervous but not panicking

Investors are nervous but are still not panicking, Bank of America highlighted as a key takeaway from its latest fund manager survey.

Among other things, the findings show an increase in cash levels, rising from 4.1% to 4.3%, and a decline in the proportion of investors overweight in stocks, which has dropped from 51% to 31%.

Optimism around capital expenditures has reached a nine-month low, but there remains strong core optimism regarding a soft landing, with 76% of respondents expecting this outcome. However, investors now believe that the Federal Reserve will need to implement more aggressive rate cuts to avoid a recession, with 60% expecting four or more rate cuts in the next 12 months.

Meanwhile, global growth expectations have declined sharply, falling from a net -27% to -47%. Despite this, the probability of a “soft landing” has risen from 68% to 76%, while the likelihood of a “no landing” scenario has decreased from 18% to 8%, and expectations of a “hard landing” have increased slightly from 11% to 13%.

The survey also highlights that 40% of Chief Investment Officers (CIOs) are pushing for CEOs to improve their companies’ balance sheets. Despite the ongoing AI boom, the desire for increased capital expenditures has fallen to 24%, the lowest level since November 2023.

On the monetary policy, 55% of respondents consider the current conditions to be “too restrictive,” the highest level since 2008, with 93% predicting lower short-term rates and 59% expecting lower bond yields. Despite recent volatility in the Japanese yen, a net 63% of investors still view the yen as undervalued.

In the face of heightened volatility, near-term risks, and a top-heavy index weighed down by mega-cap stocks, BofA strategists recommend active stock selection over simply buying the index.

“Historically, one of the best hedges against volatility has been via high-quality stocks,” they note.

While the strategists see emerging opportunities outside the Tech sector as earnings growth broadens, they also acknowledge that some Tech stocks may still emerge as long-term winners, now potentially offering more attractive entry points.