Black Swans from Saxo Bank for 2023
2022.12.07 05:17
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Black Swans from Saxo Bank for 2023
Budrigannews.com – “The days when low interest rates could inspire hopes of a peaceful world based on equality, renewable energy, and independent central banks are long gone. World economies will enter War Economy mode in 2023, prioritizing self-reliance and sovereign economic gains over globalization. That exemplifies how insistent Saxo Bank is in its recent report on the black swans for the upcoming year.
Black swans are events that appear to have been unforeseen, have a significant impact on society and economy, and, after they have occurred, are looked at with hindsight to determine whether or not they could have been anticipated.
The Danish bank’s ten “crazy” predictions are as follows:
1. The new “Manhattan Project,” a trillion-dollar energy plan, is the result of a multibillion-dollar coalition. The world’s ever-increasing need for energy prompted the richest people on the planet to unite and launch a research and development project of a magnitude not seen since the Manhattan Project produced the first atomic bomb for the United States.
2. French President Emmanuel Macron resigns. Political impasse in France and Marine Le Pen’s rise following the 2022 election force President Macron to step down from politics.
3. As markets and central banks realize that the notion that inflation is transitory is false and that prices will remain high for longer, gold soars to $3,000 after central banks fail to control inflation.
4. With ongoing challenges in the region and a U.S. military that is not fulfilling its traditional role as global protector, the European Union agrees to form its own armed forces to protect itself from various geopolitical risks, such as the Russia-Ukraine war.
5. In an effort to become one of the world’s leaders on the path to net-zero emissions, one nation decides to not only impose a substantial tax on meat but also to completely prohibit domestic production.
6. U.K. holds a mandate against Brexit
After a downturn and extraordinary homegrown strain, the U.K. is entangled in political disturbance that will end with a vote to pull out of Brexit.
7. Widespread price controls to reduce official inflation History teaches us that price controls and rationing came with wartime economics. This time around is no exception, with rulers beginning to impose stringent price controls that have a number of unintended consequences.
8. Sanctions against Russia have caused widespread turmoil as a result of movements in nations that do not consider the United States to be an ally. OPEC+ and “Chindia” leave the IMF and agree to trade in new reserve assets. They leave the IMF and create a new reserve asset to escape this.
9. After the difficulties that the Japanese yen encountered in 2022, the Bank of Japan attempts to prevent the currency from sliding. As a result, the USD/JPY is fixed at $200. Japan will begin a complete overhaul of its financial system if it does not achieve long-term success. increases to $160 and $170 as public outrage against inflation’s skyrocketing rises to fever pitch. The government and the central bank impose a $200 ceiling when the USD/JPY crosses $180.
10. Private capital disappears as a result of the tax haven ban The war economy places a greater emphasis on national interests and the capacity of sovereign nations to assert themselves. In that sense, OECD nations direct their concentration toward duty safe houses and take out the serious weapons, restricting them through and through.
