Bitcoin traders see $70K BTC price as market trims Fed rate cut bets
2024.10.17 09:44
Bitcoin (BTC) drifted lower into the Oct. 17 Wall Street open as United States jobless claims increased caution over interest rate cuts.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin centers on $67,000 after US jobs data
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked a cool day for BTC price action after a spike to 11-week highs of $68,400.
Hovering around $67,000 at the time of writing, BTC/USD weathered mixed US unemployment data.
This showed new jobless claims coming in below expectations of 258,000, while ongoing claims conversely offered a slightly higher tally than predicted.
As a result, markets reduced confidence in the scale of rate cuts likely to be enacted by the Federal Reserve in the coming months.
Odds overwhelmingly favored a 0.25% downshift at the Fed’s November meeting, per the latest statistics from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group
Elsewhere, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered its anticipated 0.25% cut on the day.
With no immediate macroeconomic catalysts in play, attention among Bitcoin and crypto market participants focused firmly on the US Presidential Election, due the same week as the Fed meeting.
“While the US election is the next key catalyst for BTC and crypto, markets remain uncertain as to where BTC will go post election,” trading firm QCP Capital noted in its latest bulletin which it sent to Telegram channel subscribers.
“Options expiring near the election are trading at a 10% premium compared to other expiries. With everyone’s focus on the election, any change in the polls or either candidate’s campaign narrative will be amplified in spot prices.”
Excitement and trepidation as BTC price highs near
Analyzing short-term BTC price action, meanwhile, opinions were mixed as to whether bulls could sustain the current momentum.
Related: Bitcoin profit-taking nears $74K peak as speculators send Binance $500M
“The recent short squeeze has mostly played out,” popular X account TheKingfisher suggested in part of its recent posts.
“On the bullish side, there’s only one significant ‘toxic’ level left for 2024 at 71.3k, giving a trade range of 60.2k to 71.3k. There’s potential for another push towards 73k, but that could lead to another correction towards 60k and deleverage the market again.”
BTC/USD chart. Source: TheKingfisher/X
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass showed ask liquidity increasing around $68,000 while clustering around $68,500 — just above the previous day’s high — after BTC price took liquidity to the downside.
BTC liquidation heatmap (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
Plenty of voices nonetheless favored a sprint beyond the old 2021 all-time high of $69,000.
Source: Jeff Moore
“Regardless of what the knee jerk reaction to the economic data is, Bulls want to see price stay above the key MA’s,” Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, wrote in part of his latest X post earlier on the day.
“IMO, consolidating above the 2021 Mid-Cycle Top before going after $70k would be healthier than a straight rip, but the market doesn’t care what I think.”
An accompanying chart showed moving average (MA) trend lines, as well as long and short signals on one of Material Indicators’ proprietary trading tools.
BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Keith Alan/X
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
