Bitcoin traders’ profit margins repeat 2022 bear market — New research
2024.07.10 12:12
Bitcoin (BTC) traders face bear market-style losses as a new report warns that a return to upside could take months.
In its latest Weekly Report shared with Cointelegraph on July 10, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant said that Bitcoin market conditions echo late 2022.
BTC profits echo the post-FTX climate
Bitcoin faces multiple hurdles in returning to its bull market, and traders and miners are feeling the strain.
CryptoQuant reveals that more recent large-volume investors, known as whales, have distributed coins worth $1 billion in July alone.
“The fact that new and large investors are now realizing losses could be an early sign of Bitcoin price bottom. Previously, in February-March, this investor cohort had realized strong profits as prices peaked above $70K,” it commented.
Bitcoin whales’ realized profits (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
In further contrast to the golden days of the bull run just months ago, traders are sitting on unrealized losses of 17% — the most since the pit of the last Bitcoin bear market in December 2022.
“In this same tone, Bitcoin traders are now operating with negative margins, and would only realize losses if they continue to sell. Trader’s unrealized margins are now -17%, the most negative since shortly after the FTX exchange collapse in November 2022,” the report continued.
“Prices have typically bottomed-out when trader’s margins touch extremely negative levels as seen currently (red circles).”
Bitcoin trader realized price vs. profit/loss margin (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
An accompanying chart compared traders’ current realized price — their aggregate cost basis — to unrealized profit margins.
Bitcoin miners keep up sales
CryptoQuant additionally noted that miners remain in a “capitulation” phase, with operators likewise struggling to break even following April’s block subsidy halving.
Related: BTC price risks ‘double top’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
As Cointelegraph reported, smaller miners in particular have been seen to quit the network amid a low hash price, taking hashrate lower.
“Large-size miners have sold about $300M since June 20, while mid-size miners have unloaded around $500M on a cost-basis,” the report now confirms.
Bitcoin realized cap (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
In a post on X (formerly Twitter) on July 9, CryptoQuant CEO Ki-Young Ju calculated that crypto markets could be “boring for the next 2-3 months.”
“Stay long-term bullish but avoid excessive risk,” he suggested.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
