Bitcoin technical indicator predicts BTC cycle peak in $174K–$462K range
2024.10.30 14:18
Bitcoin (BTC) registered its highest-ever three-day candle close at $72,724 on Oct. 29 after the crypto asset rallied 8.75% in 24 hours. With BTC moving above its overhead resistance at $71,500, based on this key indicator, investors could be looking at a return on investment (ROI) range of 145%–530% in the next 12 months.
Bitcoin 3-day chart. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin’s price could peak in the $175,000–$450,000 zone
Bitcoin is close to breaking out of a seven-month price consolidation range, and the market is anticipating a period of price discovery after BTC records new all-time highs (ATHs).
While new studies and data have served various predictions over the past few weeks, Bitcoin has previously adhered to levels outlined by Fibonacci retracement levels between 1.618 and 2.272, where each BTC top has been achieved.
Bitcoin two-month Fibonacci retracement levels. Source: TradingView
As illustrated in the chart, each Bitcoin peak since 2013 has occurred between 1.618 and 2.272 Fib, and under the current setup, the price target at 1.618 is $173,088, and the target at 2.272 is $458,319.
However, over the years, the price has continued to top at a point slightly below the previous range measured by Fib. For example, in 2013, the price peaked just above the 2.272 mark. In 2018, the BTC top was just under the 2.272 Fib line, and in 2021, the cycle high of $69,800 was under the 1.618 level.
Therefore, in 2025 or 2026, the Bitcoin top might fall below $173,000 if a trend of “reduced return over a four-year period” continues.
Related: Bitcoin hits $73.6K as fundamentals suggest new all-time highs are programmed
“Fate of bulls to be decided” at $86,200
According to Axel Adler Jr., a Bitcoin researcher, the $86,200 level would be a critical point for the Bitcoin bulls.
Citing Bitcoin’s short-term holder analysis and risk evaluation chart, Adler Jr. explained that at $86,200, BTC would reach the high-risk upper boundary for the current cycle.
Bitcoin risk evaluation chart. Source: Alex Adler Jr./X
Previously, the upper-risk boundary acted as a key level where short-term holders took profits between January 2023 and January 2024, and BTC’s price hit a temporary price ceiling.
A move above this level led to an exponential rally in 2021, during which the crypto asset underwent price discovery. Adler added:
“If the price breaks above this point and forms a strong bullish momentum, we’ll finally see what everyone has been waiting for.”
Related: BTC price sets 68K euro all-time high as Bitcoin bulls eye gold next
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
