Bitcoin taps $62K as 6% BTC price rebound runs into stubborn US dollar
2024.06.25 11:40
Bitcoin (BTC) returned to $62,000 on June 25 as markets slowly clawed back lost ground from the weekly open.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
BTC price tests 200-day trendline as market bounces
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price strength staging a tentative recovery after the Wall Street open.
Bulls had suffered the day prior, as a trip to seven-week lows of $58,500 sparked a cascade of capitulations.
Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading on 4-hour timeframes hit its lowest levels since August 2023 — also the last time that BTC/USD also gave up bull market support lines such as the short-term holder aggregate cost basis.
“Range held where it needed to,” popular trader Daan Crypto Trades confirmed in one of his latest updates on X (formerly Twitter).
“Yesterday was the largest net selling day in Bitcoin in over a year. RSI levels also hit levels not seen in a year.”
BTC/USDT perp chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass put total BTC long liquidations for June 24 at just under $150 million.
BTC liquidations (screenshot). Source: CoinGlas
“Massive liquidity zone at $65K and all the way up to that point,” Daan Crypto Trades continued.
“I think that would be a good level in the short term to target and see how the market looks by then. Invalidation is losing the range low at ~59K.”
BTC liquidation heatmap (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
Talk of the psychological — if not physical — impact of the Mt. Gox bankruptcy proceedings continued to circulate.
“We think there will continue to be selling pressure in the market as markets try to digest what 140,000 BTC means for markets and prices that in,” trading firm QCP Capital wrote on the topic in part of its latest update to Telegram channel subscribers.
“Existing Mt Gox creditors are probably unhedged given how expensive it is to hold perp positions and option positions for long periods of time.”
BTC/USD 1-day chart with 200EMA. Source: TradingView
QCP noted that BTC price had bounced near its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), currently at almost exactly $58,000. The last time BTC/USD traded below that trendline was in October
Bitcoin squares off with U.S. dollar
Fellow trader Skew nonetheless warned of ongoing strength for the U.S. dollar — traditionally a headwind for risk assets and crypto — and suggested that this would continue in the short term.
Source: Skew
Applying Elliott Wave theory to the U.S. dollar index (DXY), however, Matthew Dixon, CEO of crypto rating platform Evai, argued that the picture was conversely bearish for dollar bulls.
“A valid 5 waves down for DXY is a very promising sign for BTC & Crypto,” he commented on the 15-minute chart.
“If we now get a three wave retracement, ideally to around the 0.618 Fib then we would expect a further 5 waves down as a minimum, which would give risk assets a further boost.”
U.S. dollar index (DXY) chart with RSI data. Source: Matthew Dixon/X
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
