Bitcoin still 10% down post-halving amid record delay to all-time high
2024.09.04 10:50
Bitcoin (BTC) is taking longer than ever to make a new all-time high after its latest halving, popular trader Peter Brandt warns.
In his latest analysis on X, Brandt also revealed that Bitcoin’s previous record high from 2021 still stands on an inflation-adjusted basis.
Brandt: Bitcoin suffers from “lack of energy”
BTC price action has disappointed bulls and frustrated new investors since its last US dollar all-time high in mid-March.
Not only has the market failed to match that $73,800 level since Brandt notes, but since the latest block subsidy halving event in April, a record length of time has elapsed without a return to price discovery.
“I measure cycles different than most,” he explained, referencing the nuances between BTC price cycles between macro highs and lows and halvings.
“My cycle starts at prev. bear market low (Nov ’22). Then note high of the cycle starting at prev low prior to halving (Mar ’24). Not only has this high not been violated, but high from prev bull cycle on inflation adjusted basis still intact.”
Source: Peter Brandt
That perspective lends additional weight to $69,000 — the 2021 peak — as formidable resistance should BTC/USD stage a sustained recovery.
In subsequent discussions, however, Brandt stressed that it does not mean that Bitcoin has been in a downtrend ever since that time.
BTC price doom and gloom eclipses Fed rate cut
Others also see Bitcoin as far from out of the woods this month.
Related: Bitcoin price targets include $50K as Nvidia crash shakes Nikkei, gold
Even with United States financial policy easing due to begin, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant suggested this week that BTC price moves will remain “frustrating.”
“Due to the expected US base rate cut on September 18, a short-term rebound due to positive market sentiment can be expected, but if the market atmosphere is not significantly reversed, it is highly likely that frustrating movements will continue in 2024,” contributor Crypto Dan wrote in a Quicktake blog post.
“It is regrettable that the frustrating situation continues, but it seems necessary to wait for 2025 with a long breath and patience.”
As Cointelegraph reported, one forecast even sees the Federal Reserve’s anticipated September interest rate cut driving Bitcoin down by up to 20%.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
