Bitcoin speculators hodl 2.8M BTC in ‘worst performing’ price cycle
2024.07.11 05:26
Bitcoin long-term holders are refusing to sell in the current BTC price cycle’s “deepest correction.”
In the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, The Week Onchain, crypto analytics firm Glassnode delivered good news on Bitcoin (BTC) hodler resilience.
Glassnode praises “robust” Bitcoin market
Bitcoin may be experiencing its heaviest drawdown of the current bull market, but its “diamond hands” show no sign of panicking.
For Glassnode, “if we look at performance indexed to the date of the Bitcoin halving, we can see that the current cycle is one of the worst performing.”
“This is despite the market breaching to a new cyclical ATH prior to the halving event in April, which was the first time this has happened,” it summarized.
Bitcoin price performance since halving comparison (screenshot). Source: Glassnode
In contrast to some well-known capitulation events in Bitcoin’s recent history, Glassnode shows that long-term holders are sitting on their BTC. Even the recent trip to four-month lows of $53,500 for BTC/USD failed to shake their resolve.
“Looking at losses locked in by both Long-Term, and Short-Term Holders, we note that the loss taking events this week account for less than 36% of the total capital flows across the Bitcoin network,” the newsletter confirms.
“Major capitulation events, such as Sep 2019, March 2020, and the sell-off in May 2021, saw losses account for more than 60% of capital flows over a period of several weeks, with a meaningful contribution from both cohorts.”
Long-term and short-term holders refer to Bitcoin wallet entities hodling a given unit of BTC for more than or less than 155 days, respectively. The latter term reflects the more speculative end of the Bitcoin investor spectrum.
Glassnode produced a chart showing the distinct absence of long-term holder participation in onchain selling at a loss during the BTC price drawdown.
“Following 18 months of up-only price action after the FTX implosion, and 3 months of apathetic sideways trading, the market has endured its deepest correction of the cycle,” it wrote in part of its concluding remarks.
“Nevertheless, drawdowns across our current cycle remains favourable when compared to historical cycles suggesting a relatively robust underlying market structure.”
Bitcoin relative long, short-term holder realized loss (screenshot). Source: Glassnode
Weeks to go until a BTC price turnaround?
As Cointelegraph reported, short-term holders and day traders are in focus as profit margins flip negative.
Related: Bitcoin sellers are trying to keep BTC price below $60K
At the $53,500 lows, Glassnode added, short-term holders held nearly 2.8 million BTC, or 14.2% of the total supply, at an unrealized loss.
Miners, too, are causing concern, with a hashrate capitulation phase ongoing and reminding longtime market observers of the events leading up to the bear market bottom in late 2022.
“The biggest Bitcoin drawdown since the FTX fraud and collapse to $15K has been preceded by a Hash Ribbon Capitulation signal which fired in mid-May,” Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, warned followers on X on July 10.
In subsequent debate, Edwards suggested that a buy signal could be “at least a couple of weeks away.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
