Bitcoin price holds $29K as US PCE data sparks 90% Fed rate hike bets
2023.04.28 12:32
Bitcoin (BTC) stayed choppy at the April 28 Wall Street open, while United States macro data conformed to expectations.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
PCE offers “nothing to shock”
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD fluctuating around the $29,000 mark on Bitstamp.
U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index data, tipped as the macro event of the week, failed to deliver a performance catalyst as numbers broadly conformed to what markets had already priced in.
“The trend is our friend, however core sticky for now – hovering at 4.6% since December,” financial commentator Tedtalksmacro responded, adding in Twitter comments that the latest numbers were “overall nothing to shock the market.”
U.S. equities thus showed little movement at the open, while for Bitcoin, Binance order book data showed modest bid liquidity moving toward spot price, compressing potential volatility.
Here’s how the #BTC order book is setup ahead of the report. #FireCharts pic.twitter.com/7sCpVP5mKU
— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) April 28, 2023
Attention increasingly focused on the macro events of the coming week, these headlined by the Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
As noted by financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter, already strong odds of a further rate hike only gained momentum on the back of the PCE print.
“Interestingly, odds for another 25 bps rate hike in June are building, up to 28%,” part of Twitter analysis stated.
“However, at least 2 rate cuts are expected this year. The Fed still has not said they support any rate cuts this year. Next week will be huge.”
According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, a 0.25% rate hike was a 90% certainty at the time of writing, up 5% versus the day prior.
Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group
BTC price cements short-term range
With little certainty in BTC price action, meanwhile, traders focused on the longer-term trend.
Related: Bitcoin sell-off next? Binance BTC balance shoots up $1.5B in one month
Jelle, already confident that major downside would be avoided, flagged new trading range for BTC/USD, with a possible “slow bleed” to just below the $29,000 mark.
#Bitcoin is establishing a new range here – seems like volatility will come down in the coming days.
Slow bleed towards 28.7 makes sense.
No need to get euphoric or scared, consolidation is a necessary part of market movement.
The long-term direction remains up, be patient. pic.twitter.com/rwil38uRkP
— Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) April 28, 2023
Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital zoomed out further, eyeing a potential repeat of historical bullish trends to confirm the end of last year’s bearish trend.
“Bitcoin has already broken its Downtrend. Now it’s all about continuing the new Uptrend. Whether a retest is needed or not is the question,” he tweeted on April 27.
“But history suggests the mid-term to long-term outlook looks bullish.”
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/Twitter
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
