Bitcoin price has never lost more than 10% in July — Is 2023 different?
2023.07.01 10:18
Bitcoin (BTC) gained 12% in June, but one forecast sees the good times soon fading for bulls.
In a tweet on July 1, popular trader CryptoBullet admitted that July might not offer much more BTC price upside.
Trader: BTC price rally “likely” ending this month
Despite a last-minute dive, thanks to a macro news event, Bitcoin managed to close out the month of June in a solid position.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro, TradingView and CoinGlass confirms that the monthly close came in at $30,465 on Bitstamp.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
Those levels continue to hold into the weekend, with the past month marking Bitcoin’s best June performance since 2019.
By historical standards, July looks even better; throughout its history, BTC price action has never lost more than 10% during the month.
BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
For CryptoBullet, however, “common sense” dictates that BTC/USD should fall below some key moving averages.
“So, June surprised me. We got a pretty bullish monthly close: BTC tested the the MA50, bounced strongly and managed to regain the EMA21 !” he commented on the monthly chart.
“I can repeat what I said: $BTC can go to 35k (to hunt liquidity), but this mid term bullish rally is coming to an end. Likely this month.”
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: CryptoBullet/Twitter
The concept of liquidity hunting in the low $30,000 zone remains popular as a theory for price continuation.
Among those tracking it is trading suite DecenTrader, which this week underscored the leveraged short positions stacked toward $35,000.
This ties in nicely with the massive chunk of #Bitcoin Liquidity, which is loaded all the way above $35k.
If we see cascading short liquidations, wicking all the way up to the Moonraker resistance at $37k could be reasonable. pic.twitter.com/3CEJQ9bvOI
— Decentrader (@decentrader) June 28, 2023
Battle of the monthly Bitcoin charts
Elsewhere, a broadly optimistic Rekt Capital was keen for what he called a “healthy technical retest” of levels below $30,000 for Bitcoin, despite the monthly close.
Related: Bitcoin speculators send 35K BTC to exchanges in new ‘elation inflow’
“BTC has performed a bullish Monthly close but is primed for a healthy technical retest at ~$29250,” he told Twitter followers on the day.
“With price currently around $30500… I wonder what negative catalyst will soon emerge to facilitate this technical retest.”
Further analysis additionally argued that even if the BTC price were to snap below that downside target, it would constitute nothing “out of the ordinary.”
“Well positioned for upside overall,” Rekt Capital added.
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/Twitter
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
