Bitcoin price consolidation could give way to gains in TON, APE, TWT and AAVE
2022.12.04 21:42
The United States equities markets shrugged off the hotter-than-expected labor data on Dec. 2 and recovered sharply from their intraday low. This suggests that market observers believe the Federal Reserve may not change its stance of slowing the pace of rate hikes because of the latest jobs data.
Although the FTX crisis broke the positive correlation between the U.S. equities markets and Bitcoin (BTC), the recent strength in equities shows a risk-on sentiment. This could be favorable for the cryptocurrency space and may attract dip buyers.
Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360
The broader crypto recovery may pick up steam after more clarity emerges on the extent of damage caused by FTX’s collapse. Until then, bullish price action may be limited to select cryptocurrencies.
Let’s look at the charts of Bitcoin and select altcoins that may be getting ready to start an up-move in the near term.
BTC/USDT
Bitcoin has been trading near its 20-day exponential moving average, or EMA, of $16,963 for the past three days. This suggests a tough battle between the bulls and the bears to gain supremacy.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The major roadblock for the buyers on the upside is $17,622. If bulls catapult the price above this level, it will suggest that the downtrend could be over. The BTC/USDT pair could then race to the psychological level of $20,000. This level may again act as a resistance, but if crossed, the pair could rally to $21,500.
Conversely, if the price turns down from $17,622 and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bears have not yet given up. The pair could thereafter consolidate in a large range between $15,476 and $17,622.
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
Buyers are defending the 20-day EMA on the four-hour chart, but the failure to achieve a strong bounce indicates that demand dries up at higher levels. The bears may try to make the most of this opportunity and pull the price below the moving averages. If they manage to do that, the pair could drop to $16,000 and then to $15,476.
On the other hand, if the price turns up and breaks above $17,250, the likelihood of a rally to $17,622 increases. This level may again act as a significant resistance, but if bulls drive the price above it, the pair could rally to $18,200.
TON/USDT
Toncoin (TON) nudged above the symmetrical triangle pattern on Nov. 30, but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels as seen from the long wick on the day’s candlestick. However, the bulls defended the 20-day EMA ($1.73) on the downside, indicating buying on dips.
TON/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The upsloping moving averages and the relative strength index (RSI) in the positive zone indicate advantage to buyers. This improves the prospects of a break above the resistance line of the triangle. If that happens, buying could accelerate and the TON/USDT pair could soar to $2.15 and then march toward the pattern target of $2.87.
This positive view could negate in the near term if the price once again turns down from the resistance line and plummets below the 20-day EMA. That could increase the selling pressure and pull the pair to the 50-day simple moving average ($1.62) and later to the support line.
TON/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The bears are trying to defend the overhead resistance at $1.84 while the bulls are buying the dips to the 20-day EMA. The price is getting squeezed between the two levels and may be ripe for a range breakout.
If the price rises above the overhead zone between $1.84 and the downtrend line, it may attract further buying by the bulls. That could start a new up-move to $2. The important level to watch on the downside is $1.68 because a break below it could expedite the drop to the support line.
APE/USDT
ApeCoin (APE) turned down from the downtrend line on Nov. 30, but the bulls have not allowed the price to break below the 20-day EMA ($3.73). This is a positive sign as it signals demand at lower levels.
APE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The 20-day EMA is gradually turning up and the RSI has jumped into the positive territory, indicating that bulls are attempting a comeback. The APE/USDT pair could pick up momentum on a break above the downtrend line. This could open the doors for a possible rally to $5 and thereafter to $6.
Instead, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bears are active at higher levels. The pair could then drop to $3, which is likely to act as a strong support.
APE/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The 20-EMA on the four-hour chart has flattened out and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. This uncertainty could shift in favor of the bulls if they push the price above $4.05. The pair could then rally to the downtrend line.
If bears want to gain the upper hand, they will have to sink the pair below $3.77. If they manage to do that, the decline could extend to $3.50.
Related: How much is Bitcoin worth today?
TWT/USDT
Trust Wallet Token (TWT) rebounded sharply off the 20-day EMA ($2.07) on Nov. 27 and broke above the resistance at $2.45 on Dec. 2. This suggests that the trend remains bullish and traders are viewing the dips as a buying opportunity.
TWT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bears may again pose a strong challenge at $2.73 but if bulls overcome this barrier, the TWT/USDT pair could resume the uptrend. The next stop on the upside could be $3, and if this level is also taken out, the pair could soar to the pattern target of $3.51.
Contrarily, if the price turns down and breaks below $2.25, the pair could drop to the 20-day EMA. This remains the key level to watch on the downside because a break below it could pull the pair toward $1.81. A bounce off this level could suggest that the pair may consolidate between $1.81 and $2.54 for a few days.
TWT/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The 20-EMA on the four-hour chart has turned up and the RSI is in the positive zone, indicating that buyers have an edge. The bulls will attempt to drive the price above the overhead resistance zone between $2.54 and $2.73. If they succeed, the pair could start the next leg of the uptrend.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-EMA, the bullish momentum may weaken and the pair could slide to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). The pair could then remain range-bound for some time before starting the next trending move.
AAVE/USDT
Aave (AAVE) recovered sharply from the psychological support at $50 and broke above the 20-day EMA ($63). Buyers are currently striving to strengthen their position by flipping the 20-day EMA into support.
AAVE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bears are trying to defend the 32.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $68, but a minor positive is that the bulls have not given up much ground. This indicates that buyers anticipate a move higher.
The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating that the bears may be losing their grip. If buyers thrust the price above $68, the AAVE/USDT pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($71) and thereafter to the 61.8% retracement level at $80.
On the contrary, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, the pair could drop to the support line of the channel.
AAVE/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The pair is facing resistance near $66 and the RSI has formed a negative divergence on the four-hour chart, suggesting that the bullish momentum could be weakening in the near term. A break below the 50-SMA could pull the price to the $56 to $58 support zone.
Alternatively, if the price turns up from the current level and breaks above $66, the pair could rally to $71. This level may again act as a resistance, but if bulls push the price above it, the rally could extend to $80.
The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
