Bitcoin price can hit $100K by Thanksgiving if bulls hold key level
2024.11.15 00:21
Bitcoin (BTC) circled key local lows on Nov. 15 as bulls swapped all-time highs for support retests.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin cools as US PPI sparks stagflation talk
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed a BTC price dip below $87,000 into the daily close.
After notching new all-time highs on Nov. 13, $90,000 and above stayed out of reach as support as the market returned to consolidate lower.
The latest United States inflation data in the form of the October print of the Producer Price Index (PPI), had shown inflationary forces returning as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates.
PPI was 2.4% for October, per data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 0.1% above expectations.
“Both PPI and CPI inflation are now officially back on the rise with Core inflation above 3.0%,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter reacted on X.
“The Fed’s job is still far from done here.”
Ostensibly problematic for risk assets and crypto, fresh financial policy hawkishness as a result of rising prices thus trickled back into traders’ consciousness.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the odds of another rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting were 58% on Nov. 15 — the day prior, they had stood at 82%.
Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group
Continuing, Kobeissi warned that rising prices and a weak labor market could give the Fed a new problem: stagflation.
“This is a nightmare situation for the Fed because it puts them in a lose-lose situation,” it explained.
“If you raise rates, we head into a recession, if you cut rates, inflation rises even further.”
BTC price faces “aggressive” selling and $86K line in the sand
With Bitcoin running out of steam on the back of the inflation figures and cool language from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, analysis urged protection of the area around $87,000.
Related: Bitcoin corrects as US inflation data emerges — Is the rally to $100K at stake?
“Likely the same passive buyer in these 3 lows around $87K before it was finally taken,” popular trader Skew determined about low timeframes.
“Probably filled 800BTC + Which is also very contextual for this low because if lost again they would probably sell some portion of that risk.”
BTC/USDT 5-minute chart with liquidity. Source: Skew/X
Skew subsequently spied what he called an “aggressive seller trying to force” BTC/USD to lower levels.
Meanwhile, Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, argued that a return to the mid-$80,000 range might ultimately be cathartic for BTC price strength.
“A retest of support at $86k would be healthy for $BTC, and it will give us some insight as to whether the velocity of this “TrumpPump can be sustained for a soonish run at $100k or if momentum is going to cool off for more than 5 minutes,” he told X followers.
Later, Alan suggested that Bitcoin could hit its ultimate psychological target — $100,000 — as soon as the Thanksgiving holiday on Nov. 28.
To do so, however, it needed to preserve a rising short-term trend line.
“If support fails at the line, price will search for support in the $75k – $76k range,” he warned.
BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: Keith Alan/X
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
