Bitcoin preps for FOMC comments as BTC price coils near $103K
2025.01.28 14:39
After a brief drop below $100,000, Bitcoin’s (BTC) price closed its daily candle at $102,000 on Jan. 28. Over the past 24 hours, the crypto asset has consolidated above the six-figure range, as the market braced itself for the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Target Rate probabilities for Jan. 29 Fed meeting. Source: CME
CME’s FedWatch tool has predicted that there is a 99.5% chance that the Fed will keep its interest rates unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50%.
Bitcoin moves “priced in” ahead of FOMC
In December 2024, minutes from the FOMC meeting indicated that the Fed would take a more measured approach in 2025. Further rate cuts will depend on whether new data suggests economic weakness and lower inflation.
For the better part of four weeks, multiple analysts believed that the markets have already “priced in” unchanged interest rates. Thus, the attention is more focused on the tone of Fed chair Jerome Powell’s statements.
If the Fed chair maintains a strict or hawkish stance, Bitcoin is expected to see a spike in bearish volatility.
Bitcoin 6-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The downside target for Bitcoin lies around 94,000 once equal lows (EQLs) are swept around the $97,000 region. The $94,000 range marks an untested 4-hour fair value gap. If the FVG range is breached, BTC can drop under its previous range low at $88,900, which may signal the start of a new bearish directional bias.
Bitcoin futures analysis on a 4-hour chart. Source: X.com
Byzantine General, a futures market analyst, had a similar opinion, expecting BTC prices to possibly retest the $94,000 to $92,000 before the FOMC meeting.
Related: Bitcoin far from ‘extreme’ FOMO at above $100K BTC price — Research
Can Trump influence the Fed’s outlook?
One key difference between the previous and upcoming FOMC meeting is that this will be the first Fed gathering under Trump’s administration. Last week, the 47th US president publicly demanded that the Federal Reserve should consider cutting interest rates, citing declining oil prices.
Additionally, Tomas, a macroeconomics analyst, also said that it is “hard to believe” that Powell will be more hawkish relative to the December 2024 press conference. The analyst said,
“We have seen a cool PPI and a marginally cool core CPI. We have also seen some very cool shelter inflation data points recently. All “good news” in terms of potentially more Fed rate cuts in 2025.”
Hence, this outlook may not be “priced in,” according to market commentators. Any indication of a dovish sentiment could send Bitcoin higher in the charts and establish a higher high pattern in the mid-term chart.
Bitcoin 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
A 4-hour candle close above equal high (EQHs) at $107,000 would take BTC above the descending trendline resistance as illustrated in the chart, and a confirmed break of structure (BOS) will be attained.
This would allow Bitcoin to move toward another all-time high value above $110,000, with the crypto asset entering another price discovery period in February.
Regardless, it should be noted that the Federal Reserve is an independent entity, and it does not need to consider the US President’s opinion. Market speculations are currently bullish, but a clear picture will only be available after the FOMC meeting.
Related: Absence of Bitcoin ‘panic selling’ suggests BTC drop below $98K is a short-term blip: Analyst
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
