Bitcoin ‘new’ investor spike echoes 2019 BTC price peak — Analysis
2024.09.03 10:49
Bitcoin (BTC) is giving “new investors” a run for their money in a style similar to before its 2020 all-time high, analysis says.
In a Quicktake blog post on Sept. 2, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant likened current short-term holder trends to mid-2019.
Bitcoin’s all-time high buyers face the chop
Bitcoin buyers from the past six months are either hodling firm or selling at a loss after half a year of sideways BTC price action.
According to CryptoQuant contributor Avocado_onchain, a spike in unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) with an age of six months or less reflects the fervor that accompanied Bitcoin’s most recent all-time highs of $73,800 in mid-March this year.
“These are new investors who entered the market, likely around March of this year when Bitcoin’s price was at its peak,” the post writes.
“The declining proportion of these UTXOs suggests that these investors have either exited the market, likely due to losses amid Bitcoin’s stagnant movement, or have continued to hold and transitioned into the six-month-and-above group.”
Bitcoin realized cap UTXO age bands chart. Source: CryptoQuant
An accompanying chart shows similar new investor UTXO levels to 2019, when BTC/USD saw a local high before taking nearly 500 days to eclipse what were then all-time highs from December 2017 — $20,000.
“A similar structure occurred around the halving event in 2019, and it took approximately 490 days for Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high (ATH) after that—acknowledging, of course, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic,” the post continues.
New investors “critical” for BTC price gains
The “new investor” cohort differs from the classic understanding of “short-term holders,” the latter defined as entities hodling a given amount of BTC for up to 155 days.
Related: Bitcoin price nearly hits $60K but traders still see bearish September
These speculators’ cost basis often forms key support during bull markets, but is currently above spot price, with the short-term holders on aggregate holding unrealized losses.
“Currently, Bitcoin’s price has been stuck in a large range for more than six months, with no clear trigger for a breakout,” Avocado_onchain concludes.
“While I have no doubt about the long-term upward trend, in the short term, I believe it’s wise to temper expectations and closely monitor the market. Historically, the influx of capital from new investors has been a critical condition for Bitcoin’s price increases.”
As Cointelegraph reported, other onchain data also points to a similar landscape to four years ago.
Bitcoin’s hashprice, which measures production costs for miners, is near levels that could mark a long-term BTC price floor.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
