Bitcoin miners ‘next trigger’ for BTC price crash as outflows hit multi-month highs
2022.11.10 07:26
Bitcoin (BTC) miners could form the next BTC price “trigger,” research warns as withdrawals intensify.
In a Quicktake post for on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant on Nov. 10, contributor MAC.D suggested that miners could soon face “bankruptcy.”
Research: Network conditions “will strangle” miners
After BTC/USD fell 20% in a matter of days, miners began operating at a higher cost than the block subsidy and transaction fees they earned.
The result is mining rigs being idled and miners selling BTC to cover expenses.
“BTC security is at an all-time high, but its mining volume is gradually decreasing. This will strangle the miners,” MAC.D explained.
He pointed to outflows from miner wallets passing 5,400 BTC for Nov. 9 alone, something which “can be interpreted as increased selling pressure.”
Going forward, the situation could worsen should major mining firms end up selling stored BTC en masse as a way to pay obligations.
“There is already a lot of news that mining companies listed on NASDAQ cannot pay their debts. If they go bankrupt, there will be a situation where they have no choice but to sell BTC,” the post continued:
“Therefore, it is necessary to keep a close eye on the miner withdrawal table, and if the amount of miner withdrawal increases, BTC is likely to fall further.”
A silver lining could nonetheless come shortly after such a major capitulation. Historically, there has been a correlation between miner wipeouts and BTC price bottoms.
“But the bankruptcy of past miners has formed the bottom of the BTC,” the post concluded:
“So when they go bankrupt, they have to use it as an opportunity to buy BTC.”
Bitcoin miner outflows chart. Source: CryptoQuant
Mining costs outweigh gains
Continuing the theme, journalist Colin Wu, meanwhile, noted that even the most popular Bitcoin mining machines were now unprofitable.
Related: FTX and Binance’s ongoing saga: Everything that’s happened until now
“As BTC has fallen by 20% in the past 7d, F2POOL shows that bitcoin mining machines such as Whatsminer M30S and Antminer S17Pro have fallen below the shutdown price,” he tweeted on the day, linking to major mining pool f2pool:
“Top bitcoin mining machines such as Ant S19 XP also account for 56% of electricity bills.”
Charles Edwards, CEO of asset manager Capriole, also flagged the untenable cost of production versus miners’ income at current prices.
“Many Bitcoin miners are now turning their rigs off,” he commented on a chart.
Bitcoin mining production cost annotated chart. Source: Charles Edwards/ Twitter
“Bitcoin’s electrical cost has just been breached for the 2nd time only in 5 years. The electrical bill for the average miner is now greater than the income earnt.”
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