Bitcoin digests US ‘nightmare’ CPI, jobs data as $60K hangs in balance
2024.10.10 11:01
Bitcoin (BTC) wobbled around the Oct. 10 Wall Street open as mixed United States inflation data sparked risk-asset volatility.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
US inflation data fallout “positive for Bitcoin”
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView captured unsettled BTC price conditions focused around $61,000.
The September print of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in above expectations, pointing to stronger than anticipated inflation forces.
“Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment,” an official press release from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) confirmed.
US CPI 12-month % change. Source: BLS
At the same time, jobless claims hit their highest levels since June 2023 — a contradictory outcome which, when combined with CPI, produces what trading resource The Kobeissi called a “nightmare” for the Federal Reserve.
“The Fed’s decision to cut by 50 basis points made absolutely no sense. They even said the economy was at ‘maximum employment’ after announcing the 50 bps cut,” it argued in part of a response on X.
“Was there an external factor pressuring the Fed?”
Source: Skew
The situation was not lost on Bitcoin traders, who agreed that Fed officials were more likely to focus on jobs than a slight CPI overshoot.
“Probably the rumours about QE & more rate cuts will strengthen —> positive for Bitcoin,” crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe told X followers.
Markets broadly saw a higher chance of the Fed enacting a 0.25% interest rate cut at its November meeting, with the odds of this reaching 87%, per data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group
BTC price “selling pressures” stack up
Considering other sensitive topics for crypto and risk assets, trading firm QCP Capital named both internal and external sources of volatility.
Related: Bitcoin ‘capitulation incoming’ as liquidity risks sub-$50K BTC price
The minutes of the Fed’s September meeting, it noted, were “less dovish” than expected, while concerns over BTC selling pressure thanks to Silk Road bitcoin movements also formed a focus.
“While US equities indices rallied last night with the S&P 500 notching a new high, the same level of optimism was not seen in crypto as selling pressures reignited, possibly due to news of more Silk Road BTC selling and PlusToken ETH selling,” it wrote in its latest bulletin in Telegram channel subscribers.
“We remain hopeful of an Uptober rally as long as the 60,000 key support level remains intact.”
QCP thus joined those doubling down on a BTC price turnaround before the monthly close, with October on average delivering 23% gains.
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