Bitcoin carves out a bottom, opening the door for KAS, MKR, AR and NOT to rally
2024.07.14 15:20
Bitcoin (BTC) has been in a sideways price action for months. The bears pulled the price below the range, but their failure to sustain the breakdown on July 8 shows that selling dries up at lower levels. That attracted buying from the aggressive bulls who aim to keep the price inside the range for some more time.
Farside Investors data shows inflows of $310 million into United States-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds on July 12, the highest inflows since June 5. The inflows suggest that the market participants are building positions as they believe a short-term bottom is in place.
Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360
Bitcoin’s recovery is expected to improve sentiment and lift the cryptocurrency markets higher. Select altcoins that are close to or have crossed their overhead resistance levels are likely to lead the rally.
What crucial resistance levels need to be sustained for Bitcoin and altcoin recovery to pick up momentum? Let’s study the top 5 cryptocurrencies that look strong on the charts.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin bounced off the $56,552 support on July 12 and rose above the 20-day simple moving average ($59,422) on July 14, indicating that the bulls are attempting a comeback.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The positive divergence on the relative strength index (RSI) suggests that the selling pressure is reducing. If buyers sustain the price above the 20-day SMA, the likelihood of a rally to the crucial level of $64,602 increases.
However, the bears are unlikely to surrender without a fight. They will try to defend the 20-day SMA and yank the price below it. If they manage to do that, the BTC/USDT pair could retest the $56,552 support.
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The bulls pushed the price above the downtrend line on the 4-hour chart but are struggling to sustain the higher levels. This suggests that the bears are trying to trap the aggressive bulls by pulling the price lower.
Any pullback is likely to find support at the 20-SMA. If the price rebounds off the 20-SMA, it will indicate a change in sentiment from selling on rallies to buying on dips. That will enhance the prospects of a rally to $64,602.
Conversely, if bears yank the price below the moving averages, it will signal that they remain in command. The pair may slump to $56,552 and eventually to $53,485.
Kaspa price analysis
Kaspa (KAS) rebounded off the 50-day SMA ($0.16) on July 12, signaling that the bulls are aggressively defending the level.
KAS/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
Both moving averages are sloping up, and the RSI is near the midpoint, suggesting a minor advantage to the bulls. If the price rises above the 20-day SMA ($0.17), the KAS/USDT pair is likely to pick up momentum and reach the overhead resistance at $0.20.
This optimistic view will be negated in the near term if the price turns down sharply and plunges below the 50-day SMA. That could attract selling, which could pull the pair down to $0.14.
KAS/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The price once again turned down from the resistance line, indicating that the bears are fiercely protecting the level. If the pair rebounds off the moving averages, the bulls will try to propel the price above the downtrend line. If they can pull it off, the pair may climb to $0.18.
Instead, if the price continues lower and breaks below the moving averages, it will suggest that the advantage has tilted in favor of the bears. The pair may then slump to $0.16.
Maker price analysis
Maker (MKR) rose sharply from close to the $2,000 level on July 8, indicating aggressive buying at lower levels.
MKR/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The moving averages are on the verge of completing a bullish crossover, and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating that the bulls have the upper hand. If buyers sustain the price above $2,730, the MKR/USDT pair is likely to rise to $3,234, where the bears may pose a strong challenge.
On the downside, the bears will have to sink the price below the moving averages to trap the aggressive bulls, pulling the pair down to $2,000.
MKR/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The rally on the 4-hour chart has pushed the RSI deep into the overbought territory, signaling that a pullback could be around the corner. The pair is likely to find support in the $2,650 to $2,730 zone. If the price rebounds off this zone, the bulls will try to push the pair to $3,000.
Contrarily, if the price turns down sharply and breaks below the support zone, it will signal that the bears are active at higher levels. The pair may then slide to the 20-SMA, an important level to watch out for. If this support also cracks, the next stop may be the 50-SMA.
Related: Why is the crypto market up today?
Arweave price analysis
Arweave (AR) has been trading inside a large range between $22 and $49.55 for the past several weeks. In a well-defined range, traders buy near the support and sell close to the resistance.
AR/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bounce off $22 has reached the 20-day SMA ($25), which is an important level to watch out for. If the price turns down sharply from the 20-day SMA, the bears will make another attempt to sink the AR/USDT pair below $22. If they manage to do that, the pair may start a downtrend toward $16.
On the contrary, if buyers shove the price above the 20-day SMA, the pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($31). This level may again act as a hurdle, but if the bulls prevail, the rally could reach $37.
AR/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The 4-hour chart shows the pair is rising inside an ascending channel pattern. Both moving averages have started to turn up, and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating that bulls have the edge. The momentum is likely to pick up further if buyers kick the price above the channel, which may catapult the pair to $30.
The first sign of weakness will be a break and close below the 20-SMA. That may signal the pair could remain inside the channel for some more time.
Notcoin Protocol price analysis
Notcoin (NOT) is trying to bounce off the 20-day SMA ($0.014), indicating that the bulls are trying to flip the level into support.
NOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The RSI near the midpoint suggests that the selling pressure is reducing. The NOT/USDT pair is likely to pick up momentum above $0.017 and rally toward $0.021. If this level is crossed, the rally could extend to $0.03.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day SMA, it will signal that the bears remain in control. The pair could then slump to the crucial support at $0.009.
NOT/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The pair is trying to form an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on the 4-hour chart, which will complete on a break and close above the neckline near $0.018. If that happens, the pair may surge to $0.022 and thereafter to the pattern target of $0.025.
If bears want to prevent the decline, they will have to yank and retain the price below the 50-SMA. If they do that, the pair may skid to $0.013 and eventually to $0.010. Such a deep fall will invalidate the reversal pattern.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
