Bitcoin ‘capitulation incoming’ as liquidity risks sub-$50K BTC price
2024.10.10 04:07
Bitcoin threatens a trip to long-term range lows before “full bull” takes over BTC price action.
In his latest analysis on X, released on Oct. 10, analyst Cole Garner said that he sees “capitulation incoming” for Bitcoin (BTC) markets.
BTC price “range lows” still on the table
Bitcoin still stands to gain from global liquidity trends, but what comes first might shock the average trader.
Investigating current onchain phenomena, Garner flagged liquidity declining in the short term, which could be reflected in BTC price performance.
“Liquidity onchain is tightening: I smell capitulation incoming,” he summarized.
“A common pre-requisite to full bull.”
BTC/USD 8-hour chart with Tether Ratio Channel data. Source: Cole Garner/X
Accompanying charts showed among other things a print of the Liquid Vision index, measuring global central bank liquidity.
“Liquidity onchain starts at its source, the central banks. Liquid Vision is my lens. It’s primed for a buy signal,” Garner wrote, adding:
“If China doesn’t ring that bell, Fed or Japan should do the job. But more downside could come first.”
BTC/USD chart with Liquid Vision index data. Source: Cole Garner/X
The post referred to recent policy shifts from China’s central bank and the United States Federal Reserve. Having unveiled a significant round of economic stimulus last month, the former disappointed risk-asset traders this week by holding off on continuation.
Garner additionally pointed to a declining supply of stablecoins, specifically the two largest US dollar stablecoins by market cap, Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC).
“Range lows before $100k? Total facepalm,” he said.
“BUT: we have a higher high in place. Bullish mkt structure. Even at range lows in peak fear – still bullish structure.”
BTC/USD 8-hour chart. Source: Cole Garner/X
Those lows, another chart showed, could nonetheless come in at below $50,000.
Bitcoin kicks the can on “Uptober”
As Cointelegraph reported, some market participants still hope that BTC/USD will deliver a turnaround from its sideways moves before the end of October.
Related: Bitcoin traders don’t expect new highs until the 200-MA becomes support
One theory argues that even China’s stimulus rethink could spark a fresh wave of capital inflows toward crypto.
Zooming out, bullish BTC price predictions also remain in place. This week, longtime trader Peter Brandt said that he sees BTC/USD reaching $135,000 within the next year, provided that crucial support holds.
Bitcoin traded near $61,000 at the time of writing, down 4% month-to-date, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
