Bitcoin bulls run risk of ‘Bart Simpson’ BTC price dip to $62K
2024.08.25 15:31
Bitcoin (BTC) circled $64,000 into the Aug. 25 weekly close as analysis warned that BTC price gains could soon be wiped.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
BTC price faces struggle to preserve gains
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed a flat weekend for BTC/USD after rapid gains at the end of the previous Wall Street trading session.
These followed promising signals from the United States Federal Reserve regarding policy easing in September, specifically the first interest rate cuts since 2019.
Bitcoin was initially slow to react but ultimately hit two-week highs of nearly $65,000 before consolidating lower.
Analyzing the potential moves for the coming days, however, popular trader CrypNuevo was cautious.
Order book liquidity, he determined in a thread on X, favored a drop to support which would liquidate late longs.
“The levels with more liquidations are $63.5k (1h50EMA) & $62.2k,” he summarized, referring to the 50-period exponential moving average on the 1-hour chart.
BTC liquidation levels for Binance. Source: CrypNuevo/X
BTC/USD could thus print a classic “Bart Simpson” pattern, heading back to the 50-period EMAs on 1-hour and 4-hour timeframes.
“It would make sense because they’d be filling the wick, stopping short positions and trapping some breakout traders,” he explained.
“Then the drop would flush the delta liquidations with a long squeeze to support.”
BTC/USDT 1-hour chart with 1-hour, 4-hour 50-period EMA. Source: CrypNuevo/X
Other popular social media traders agreed with the idea, among them Trader ELM, who saw a dip to $62,700 before upward continuation.
Source: Trader ELM
“Buying “clean retests” such as 62.7K after BTC pumps are historically very low hit rate,” fellow trader Crypto Chase nonetheless countered on the day.
“When BTC is ready to rip, it RARELY offers clean retests.”
Crypto Chase suggested that a breakout above $65,700 would offer a clearer indication of bullish momentum, while conversely, keen observation was needed in the event of a drop back to $60,000.
“Watch how PA responds if 60K-61K is retested (to determine whether to long for another test of daily resistance 65K or short towards 57.5K~),” he wrote alongside an explanatory chart.
BTC/USDT perpetual swaps 1-day chart. Source: Crypto Chase/X
Analyst: Bitcoin seeks return to post-halving norm
Zooming out, trader and analyst Rekt Capital offered an optimistic take on BTC price performance.
Related: Price analysis 8/23: BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, XRP, DOGE, TON, ADA, AVAX, SHIB
Bitcoin, he noted, was close to reclaiming the area it had previously occupied following its April block subsidy halving — one he called the “post-halving reaccumulation range.”
“The importance of this technical event cannot be understated,” he argued.
“Essentially, Bitcoin is resynchronising with historical Post-Halving price tendencies.”
BTC/USD 1-week chart comparison. Source: Rekt Capital/X
An accompanying chart compared this year’s post-halving price behavior to that after the previously halving in 2020.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
