Bitcoin breakout or black swan? $90K BTC price lacks gold, stocks high
2024.11.16 05:57
Bitcoin (BTC) has not matched all-time highs against the S&P 500, gold and others — but doing so is “a matter of if, not when.”
In a post on X on Nov. 15, Caleb Franzen, creator of financial research resource Cubic Analytics, predicted BTC price outperformance next.
Bitcoin macro breakout not yet reality
Bitcoin may have tapped $93,500 and gained nearly 50% in Q4, but against many macro assets, the BTC price breakout has yet to happen.
Franzen notes that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes remain unbeaten by Bitcoin — something also true of the NYSE FANG+ tech stock index and gold.
“Just a matter of when, not if,” he predicted.
BTC vs. S&P500, gold. Source: Caleb Franzen/X
For US stocks, the key moment in Bitcoin’s history was early 2021, even before BTC/USD set all-time highs of $69,000, which remained in place for over two years.
While dollar records have since fallen over and over, Bitcoin is still working on setting new all-time highs across the macro asset spectrum.
Last week, Cointelegraph reported on the market now gaining ground against gold, which had a head start of several months in setting new all-time highs in dollar terms.
At the time, Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, forecasted a “rapid repricing” now that BTC/USD had broken out.
Subsequently, Edwards shared a long-term chart of gold’s own breakout in the 2000s after spending twenty years below previous all-time highs from 1980. BTC/USD, he suggested, could now do likewise.
XAU/USD vs. BTC/USD. Source: Charles Edwards/X
BTC price bears warn of $72,000 “at least”
In a dramatic alternative take, a popular but increasingly infamous Bitcoin trader is now implying that a crash across risk assets is now due.
Related: Bitcoin price can hit $100K by Thanksgiving if bulls hold key level
On Nov. 15, Il Capo of Crypto returned to his Telegram channel with a photograph that suggested he expected a black swan event to hit.
While no commentary was given, the post rapidly began to circulate on social media, with users recalling Il Capo of Crypto’s $12,000 BTC price target, among other things.
As Cointelegraph reported, bearish perspectives on Bitcoin continue to surface, with fellow trader Credible Crypto recently calling for $50,000 or lower for the pair.
In his latest X analysis, Credible Crypto flagged $72,000 as the downside target to watch.
“If we take our highs at 93.8k in a clear, impulsive move that breaks 100k+ then 72k and below is likely gone until the next bear market,” he wrote alongside accompanying charts.
“If we instead sweep our highs and fail to produce a final, 5th subwave then it implies this move was indeed corrective and makes the odds of us retesting 70-72k AT LEAST exponentially higher.”
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Credible Crypto/X
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
