Bitcoin awaits US CPI print as options markets see 3.3% BTC price move
2024.09.10 12:04
Bitcoin (BTC) held firm at the Sept. 10 Wall Street open as bulls refused to allow a BTC price comedown.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
BTC price volatility expected as macro data flows in
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD retargeting $57,000 after a modest dip to $56,530 on Bitstamp.
Risk assets avoided major moves in advance of the United States August Consumer Price Index (CPI) print on Sept. 11, this due along with the first Presidential debate between candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
“Macro uncertainty dominates the crypto market ahead of the presidential debate, with the 30-day correlation to the MSCI World Equity Index reaching 0.6, near a 2-year high,” trading firm QCP Capital wrote in part of its latest bulletin to Telegram channel subscribers.
QCP revealed keen interest in BTC price volatility returning over the coming 24 hours, with the options market “implying a movement of more than 3.3% from the current spot of 56.8k by tomorrow’s expiry post debate.”
“While BTC is generally seen as the ‘Trump trade’ due to his vocal support for crypto, we believe the real surprise could come from Harris if she brings up crypto positively during her campaign,” it continued.
The sense of anticipation among traders was heightened in light of the previous week’s performance, where BTC/USD slipped below $53,000.
“World stocks erased a MASSIVE $4.1 trillion market cap last week, the largest drop in 2 years,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted in part of a dedicated X post on Sept. 9 alongside data from Bloomberg Terminal.
“This is twice as much as the previous largest drawdown in 2024.”
Bloomberg World Exchange market cap 1-week change. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X
While BTC/USD was up 3.7% from the weekly open at the time of writing, however, market participants suggested that it was too early for optimism.
“Nice 1D close however still more confirmations are required for the divergence to play out,” popular trader Skew explained on the day, referencing an emerging bullish divergence on the relative strength index (RSI).
“1st confirmation would be reclaim of previous lows, $57.4K area.”
BTC/USD 1-day chart with RSI data. Source: TradingView
Skew added that RSI should sustain above 50 to provide additional confirmation of the recovery. At the time of writing, daily RSI was at 44.9.
“So far it’s the same lackluster follow up + lack of urgency we’ve seen after every pump,” fellow trader Crypto Chase told X followers.
‘As said last night, no trade for me atm because this market has yet to prove it can provide proper bullish continuation. Show me it can and I’ll be more open to them in the future.”
BTC/USDT perp contract 4-hour chart. Source: Crypto Chase/X
Bitcoin ETFs claw back $700 million losses
A silver lining came in the form of the latest institutional inflows data to the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Related: Bitcoin speculators repeat 2021 de-risking as exposure drops 21.6K BTC
These totaled $28.6 million for Sept. 9, marking the first day of net positive flows since Aug. 26.
The week prior, data from UK-based investment firm Farside Investors confirms, the ETF products saw a combined net outflow of more than $700 million.
“Boosted by BTC spot ETF flows turning positive after an 8-day losing streak, we reiterate our structurally bullish stance in Q4,” QCP concluded about the longer-term picture.
US spot Bitcoin ETF flows (screenshot). Source: Farside Investors
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
