Bitcoin ’anxiety stage‘ risks more September losses, but there’s a silver lining
2024.09.13 12:01
Bitcoin analysts are eying a breakout point in the coming weeks, but market sentiment and historical data threaten more potential downside in September.
Bitcoin nears breakout point: analyst
Bitcoin’s (BTC) price could be setting up for a rally, based on a bullish divergence forming on the daily chart, according to crypto analyst Mikybull Crypto.
The analyst wrote in a Sept. 13 X post:
“Bitcoin is nearing the breaking point out of the range.”
Bitcoin/USD, 1-day chart, bullish divergence. Source: Mikybull Crypto
A bullish divergence is a technical formation used by traders to identify strengthening market momentum following lower lows. The indicator is associated with price reversals from downtrends.
Bitcoin also retested a key support level, which could result in a price breakout to above $92,000, according to popular analyst Titan of Crypto, who wrote in a Sept. 13 X post:
“In previous cycles, when the price retested the 50-week simple moving average, it bounced at least 40%. On average, the bounce was 71%. If BTC rallies 71% from here, it could reach $92,000.”
BTC.USD, 1-week chart. Source: Titan of Crypto
Related: Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin rally after closing short position
“Anxiety stage” before BTC price breakout?
Bitcoin has entered the “anxiety stage,” based on the net unrealized profit-to-loss ratio, according to CryptoQuant contributing analyst Axel Adler. In other words, many short-term investors are underwater, which could mark a potential bottom, as highlighted in the chart below.
The analyst wrote in a Sept. 13 X post:
“After the Belief stage at $72K, Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) shows a green bar, which corresponds to the Anxiety stage. Investor anxiety, if you’re not an LTH, is a permanent process, the best remedy for this is HODL.”
BTC: adjusted net unrealized profit/loss NUPL. Source: Axel Adler
Furthermore, Bitcoin’s current downside remains in line with previous historical cycles for September, according to popular analyst Rekt Capital, who wrote in a Sept. 12 X post:
“Bitcoin is currently only -1.59% down on the month.”
Bitcoin average monthly returns, percentage. Source: Rekt Capital
September has historically been a month of poor performance for Bitcoin price, with average returns at -4.69%, making it the most bearish month based on average returns, according to CoinGlass data.
Related: Bitcoin price eyes’ last dip’ before October breakout: Analysts
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
