Bitcoin analyst sees seller ‘exhaustion’ as BTC price rebounds 10%
2024.08.05 12:29
Bitcoin (BTC) sought damage control at the Aug. 5 Wall Street open as crypto markets bounced from a brutal sell-off.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
BTC price sees welcome bounce to near $55,000
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed a $4,000 BTC price rebound following the start of the United States trading session.
Having dipped below $50,000 for the first time since February, Bitcoin had traders on edge as many predicted further downside as TradFi markets returned.
In the event, risk assets saw comparatively mild downside, with the S&P 500 down 3% and Nasdaq Composite Index 3.7% lower on the day at the time of writing.
US markets thus avoided the kinds of losses seen in Asia, where Japan’s Nikkei 225 saw its worst two-day combined losses in history.
As Cointelegraph reported, alleged mass selling by trading firm Jump Trading contributed to the snap reaction to the event on crypto markets.
Commenting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter put the blame firmly at the door of the Japanese yen carry trade, a now unprofitable operation adding to the existing market pain.
“The solution to this problem is not as simple as it may seem and may require a separate thread,” it explained in a dedicated X thread.
“This is a vastly different situation than previous market downturns.”
VIX volatility index chart. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X
Kobeissi additionally noted that the VIX volatility index had hit levels only seen twice in history — during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the March 2020 COVID-19 cross-market crash.
The latter drew various comparisons on the day, including from Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments.
“Some eerie similaraties to early 2020. Stocks overvalued, growing risk of recession, rising unemployment, sharp correlated global market moves down,” he told X followers.
“At some point, the Fed will step in, likely with early rate cuts and probably liquidity too. But when? Until then, expect ALL markets to correlate.”
The Federal Reserve was reported to be considering an emergency meeting to review the situation on the day, with bets on the outcome diverging considerably.
“I’m calling for a 75 basis point emergency cut in the Fed funds rate, with another 75 basis point cut indicated for next month at the September meeting – and that’s minimum,” Jeremy Siegel, a professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, predicted in an interview with CNBC.
Siegel referred to next month’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), an event which markets now see triggering a 0.5% rate cut, per data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group
Bitcoin sell volume echoes post-halving period
Turning to Bitcoin market activity, popular trader Skew struck a balanced tone as he described a lack of “actual chaos” despite the six-month lows.
Related: Was Warren Buffett right? 5 Things to know in Bitcoin this week
“Maintained sell control often precedes this shifts to the downside – takers selling (consistently) – passive supply (limit sellers on every bounce),” part of his latest X coverage explained.
Skew noted that downside often results from sustained periods of failed breakout activity, in this case above $70,000.
“No actual chaos yet,” he concluded about the setup on largest global exchange Binance’s spot order book.
BTC/USDT order book data for Binance. Source: Skew/X
Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital meanwhile eyed “exhaustion” among sellers during the trip to lows of $49,577, equalling a 29% correction versus July’s local highs.
“Finally, the sell-side volume has reached and even dramatically eclipsed Seller Exhaustion levels seen at previous price reversals to the upside (red box on volume),” he commented on an accompanying chart uploaded to X.
“In fact, Bitcoin hasn’t seen this level of sell-side volume since the Halving in mid-April 2024.”
BTC/USD chart with trading volume data. Source: Rekt Capital/X
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
