Bitcoin analyst ‘optimistic’ of buying BTC lower as 3 trendlines fail
2024.06.18 12:13
Bitcoin (BTC) failed to reclaim $65,000 after the June 18 Wall Street open as analysts predicted further BTC price downside.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
Moving averages topple as BTC price goes under $65,000
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD struggling to maintain support near key trendlines.
Bitcoin (BTC) shed another 3% on the day, continuing a downtrend now responsible for up to $7,900 of losses since it began on June 9.
With various support levels now on the radar, market participants began to warn that many of these lacked conviction under current conditions.
For Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, multiple moving averages (MAs) were now a problem after spot price slipped through them.
“I set a trailing stop loss before leaving town to protect some profits in case Bitcoin dumped. That wick to $64k last night scaled me out of a position,” he revealed to followers on X (formerly Twitter).
“Hopefully I’ll be able to buy back cheaper and won’t regret that move. I’m optimistic. Losing the 21, 50 and 100-Day moving averages are not exactly shining beacons of strength.”
BTC/USD 1-day chart with 21, 50, 100 MA. Source: TradingView
Next up for a retest, as Cointelegraph reported, was the short-term holder cost basis at just under $64,000 as of June 18.
“BTC approaching short-term holders’ cost basis around $63.8k, don’t want to see consecutive days closed below. Typically serves as a good line in the sand for trends,” William Clemente, co-founder of crypto research firm Reflexivity, wrote in part of commentary on the topic.
BTC/USD chart with short-term holder cost basis. Source: William Clemente/X
Analyzing order book activity, popular trader Daan Crypto Trades warned that “spoofing” was rife, with large blocks of liquidity being posted and removed in a possible attempt to drive BTC price in a certain direction.
“A good bunch of those orders got filled,” he acknowledged as BTC/USD headed lower after the Wall Street open.
BTC/USDT chart with order book liquidity. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X
Altcoins lose big as Bitcoin “sneezes”
Updating Telegram channel subscribers, trading firm QCP Capital offered an alternative perspective on crypto market forces.
Related: Why is the crypto market down today?
Far from bad news, it suggested, Bitcoin and altcoins were suffering from a lack of news altogether.
“While BTC seems to have sneezed, alts seemed to have caught a cold as they drop 20-30% over the weekend,” it wrote.
“We attribute this weakness in majors to a lack of news flow. Boring markets usually shakes out weak hands, and nobody likes to pay 11% ann. to hold a long position in perps.”
QCP thus suggested a wait-and-see approach to “boring” markets.
The total altcoin market cap traded down 7.5% on the day at $219.06 billion.
Total altcoin market cap 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
