Bitcoin all-time high at $76.8K is just the beginning, according to data
2024.11.07 18:55
On Nov. 7, Bitcoin continued the trend of consecutive daily all-time highs as BTC price traded above $76,800.
Robust spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, BTC’s break out of a 7-month-long downtrend into price discovery, and the success of the US Republican party’s red wave across the Congress, Senate and Executive branches of government are signals that have prompted multiple cohorts of institutional investors to boost their allocation to Bitcoin.
Proof of this is seen in:
- CME BTC futures trading volume rose to a new all-time high at $13.15 billion on Nov. 6, and the CME notational open interest reached 15,255 BTC on the same day.
BTC CME futures volume. Source: Velo data
- Within the CME, what is clear is that institutional investors are positioning for further upside, and the Nov. 6 addition of $1.1 billion in open interest reflects this belief.
BTC CME options open interest. Source: Velo data
- Pre-election spot Bitcoin ETFs inflows in the billion dollar range, followed by strong flows post-election.
$BTC ETFs
Net Flows = +$622m pic.twitter.com/Hk5krRvC4I
— #333kByJuly2025 (@CarpeNoctom) November 7, 2024
- The steady rise in Bitcoin’s open interest and the election of pro-crypto legislators across all the branches of the US government. *Equities and crypto markets responding positively to the expectation that benchmark interest rates will continue to drop, a point reinforced by the Nov. 7, 25 basis point rate cut decision from the US Federal Reserve.
- The increased likelihood of the US creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and the expectation that the US Federal Reserve will cut rates at each upcoming FOMC is also boosting investor confidence and leading market participants to increase their allocation to equities and crypto assets.
When asked about the increased activity in CME Bitcoin futures and options markets, HighStrike’s head of crypto options and derivatives, JJ, said:
“Ceaseless demand from Coinbase spot reflects increased appetite from US institutional investors following the Trump victory and the perceived removal of White House hostilities toward the industry. Additionally, following the lack of realized volatility during the election relative to the amount of volatility implied by the options market prior (90%+), we’re seeing longer-dated implied volatility levels settle and find what could be floor at the 50% region (BTC ATM IV chart in Velo) which is where they’ve spent most of the past 2 months consolidating.”
JJ added:
“This is likely making buying longer-dated call options attractive from an options perspective, as despite the move to new ATHs for BTC and the influx of new demand options IV is nowhere near the levels it reached at the previous ATH back in March when longer-dated IVs were well above 80%, or even during the July rally when they peaked around 70%.”
Short-term price expectations reside in the $82,000 to $85,000 range
From the vantage point of technical analysis, traders appear to anticipate a rally to the $78,000 to $85,000 range. Aggregate order book structure at 2.5% depth shows a block of asks in the $77,000 to $78,000 range, followed by what currently looks like open air until $83,000.
BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TRDR.io
The Fibonacci extension tool currently projects the rally to extend to $82,367, which lines up with the 1.618 level.
BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
Aggregated spot volumes have also remained consistent while the funding rate has cooled off, and liquidations have been largely insignificant during today’s rally to new price highs.
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Velo data
Crypto market 4-hour liquidations. Source: CoinGlass
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
