Bitcoin ‘6–8 weeks’ from breakout as Hang Seng echoes Lehman Brothers dip
2022.10.24 16:30
Bitcoin (BTC) waited for cues at the Oct. 24 Wall Street open as expectations of a breakout ran high.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
Hang Seng drops most since 2008
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked a mundane trading day for BTC/USD after the pair hit weekly highs of $19,700 overnight.
Despite what Michaël van de Poppe, CEO and founder of trading firm Eight, called “way worse than expected” manufacturing data from the United States, Bitcoin suffered from a declining trajectory on the day.
This led on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators to suspect that resistance would remain in place.
“Sunday BTC failed all attempts to reclaim the 2017 Top,” it said, summarizing the latest 24 hours’ price action as per its proprietary trading indicators.
“The change in the trajectory of Trend Precognition’s A1 Slope Line after the D and W close indicates a loss of momentum. Price is currently pinned between the 50-Day MA and the trend line awaiting the TradFi open.”
Van de Poppe, meanwhile, put the sell levels to beat at $19,600 and $20,700, adding that the U.S. dollar and U.S. bond yields were “showing some slight weakness.”
“Upwards momentum is fading on bond yields,” popular trading account Game of Trades continued.
“When this last happened, the markets went on a big run.”
It was nonetheless macro markets offering clearer signs of volatility to come on the day, specifically in Asia, where the Hong Kong Hang Seng saw its biggest daily drop since the Lehman Brothers implosion in 2008.
Hang Seng Index 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView
Game of Trades likewise considered the S&P 500 as a potential source of a “massive move” with volatility increasing.
S&P 500 volatility annotated chart. Source: Game of Trades/Twitter
“Big expansive move” may be months off for BTC
For Bitcoin, volatility could be a long time coming, as a classic indicator delivers signals seen only a handful of times before.
Related: Least volatile ‘Uptober’ ever — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
As noted by Filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite DecenTrader, Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bands continue to contract on weekly timeframes, reaching rare levels.
“The outcome of each example is obviously a big expansive move,” he told Twitter followers on the day.
“The funny part is that in each of the examples, BTC spent 6-8 weeks tightening further from the width level we are now at, before a big expansive move, so I’m afraid there’s a good chance this thing winds up further.”
BTC/USD comparative annotated charts. Source: Filbfilb/Twitter
Whether up or down, Bitcoin’s current increasing correlation with gold was something to take note of, Charles Edwards, founder of asset manager Capriole, added.
“Bitcoin bottoms often align with high correlation to Gold. We have that today,” he declared alongside a comparative chart of previous such periods.
“It is much better when Bitcoin is correlated to Gold. Unshackled.”
BTC/USD vs. gold correlation annotated chart. Source: Charles Edwards/Twitter
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