Bitcoin $30K bets greet FOMC as analyst warns over long liquidations
2023.03.22 06:34
Bitcoin (BTC) may “take out shorts” to crack $30,000 during the day’s key United States macroeconomic policy updates, analysis says.
As bets pile up over how BTC price will react to the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates, $30,000 is in sight — but a drop to below $20,000 is not off the table.
Trader plans $30,000 profit-taking
Bitcoin is hours away from what popular trader Crypto Tony calls “one of the most anticipated” Fed meetings ever.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will decide on how to tweak baseline interest rates on March 22, amid suspicions that the ongoing U.S. banking crisis has disrupted policy.
From ongoing rate hikes forecast just last month, markets are now considering the chances that the Fed will pause the cycle, data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows.
Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group
This would be a key boon for risk assets, as the Fed would be tacitly implying that the eighteen months it has spent removing liquidity from the economy has not been the silver bullet to recovery.
Liquidity is already on the up thanks to the failure of several banks, Cointelegraph reported, with a chunk of the quantitative tightening (QT) removals undone in a single week.
“So FOMC today which means one thing, VOLATALITY. No doubt we will trend sideways util the meeting, which means tread cautiously,” Crypto Tony told Twitter followers in a brief on the day.
“My main play is to take profit at $30,000 if it comes.”
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Crypto Tony/Twitter
Markets commentator Tedtalksmacro meanwhile laid out the probabilities of each Fed path and their likely impact on risk assets.
FOMC scenarios.
50bps hike (outlier): short risk assets, bear trend resumes.
25bps hike (most likely): Nothing burger, the dot plot + press conference dictate the market’s move.
Pause (second most likely): Get very long #Bitcoin
Cut (outlier): Mortgage the house and buy BTC pic.twitter.com/gkrPXfloEc
— tedtalksmacro (@tedtalksmacro) March 21, 2023
“Slow grind upwards on Bitcoin, which means that my eyes are still focused on $28,700,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, continued.
“I’m expecting us to sweep into that high around FOMC and then we’ll have some consolidation. CME gap at $28,700 too.”
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/Twitter
Van de Poppe referred to a so-called “gap” on CME Group’s Bitcoin futures markets formed when their price began a new trading week in a different position to that which it finished the week prior. Historically, spot price has gone up or down in order to “fill” such gaps.
The gap in focus was created in June 2022, data from TradingView confirms.
CME Group Bitcoin futures 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView
“Do you really want to get bullish?”
Adopting a more conservative view, however, popular analyst Justin Bennett warned that the current spot price trading range represents significant historical resistance.
Related: Bitcoin hits new 9-month highs above $28K as markets flipflop over FOMC
A “squeeze” of shorts could result in $30,000 appearing, he acknowledged, but a sudden dive could have the opposite effect — longs are betting that $20,000, at least, will hold.
“Look, maybe we see BTC take out short liquidations up to $30k,” Bennett summarized.
“But do you really want to get bullish at macro resistance with a massive block of long liquidations sub $20k? I don’t.”
An accompanying chart showed the extent of liquidations, which would be triggered by such a move below the $20,000 mark.
Bitcoin liquidation levels annotated chart. Source: Justin Bennett/ Twitter
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