Big central banks are still hiking rates but eye the end

LONDON (Reuters) – Inflation is cooling, meaning major central banks can start to think about ending interest rate hikes even if most are not there just yet.

The Bank of England, an outlier in some ways given the persistence of British inflation, on Thursday raised its benchmark rate by a bigger-than-expected half a percentage point.

Traders expect one more hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve and two more from the European Central Bank.

To date, nine developed economies have raised rates by a combined 3,740 basis points (bps) in this cycle. Japan is the holdout dove. 

Here’s a look at where central banks stand, ranked in terms of how much they have hiked rates so far this cycle.      

1) NEW ZEALAND

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its cash rate to a 14-year high of 5.5% in May. It also surprised markets by forecasting rates would not move above this level, a strong signal its tightening cycle was ending as the hikes it has already delivered began to have the desired effect on inflation.

Still, the RBNZ has hiked rates the most among major economies in this tightening cycle.

2) UNITED STATES

The Fed paused its most aggressive series of rate hikes since the 1980s on June 14, keeping its main funds rate at 5%-5.25%, but strongly resisted confirming that monetary tightening will end.

The pause allows policymakers time to gather information before determining whether rates need to rise again, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said.

But officials also projected two more 25-bp hikes this year. The U.S. economy has held up better than the Fed expected, while inflation has declined more slowly than forecast.

3) BRITAIN

The Bank of England raised interest rates by 50 bps to 5% on Thursday, their highest since 2008 and the largest increase since February, after it said there had been “significant” news suggesting British inflation would take longer to fall.

“The economy is doing better than expected, but inflation is still too high and we’ve got to deal with it,” BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said. “If we don’t raise rates now, it could be worse later,” he added.

4) CANADA

The Bank of Canada hiked its overnight interest rate to a 22-year high of 4.75% on June 7, having kept borrowing costs steady since January to assess the impact of tightening so far.

Canadian retail sales grew much more than expected in April and will likely post another gain in May, data showed on Wednesday, bolstering the chances of another hike next month.

5) AUSTRALIA

Australia’s central bank raised its benchmark rate by a quarter-point on June 6 to an 11-year high of 4.1%.

The RBA said inflation was still too high and said further tightening might be warranted to ensure price pressures return to target. Markets price in around a one-in-three chance of another hike in July.

6) EURO ZONE

The ECB on Thursday raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 3.5%, the highest level in 22 years.

It expects inflation to stay above its 2% target through 2025 and hinted at more rate hikes ahead.

ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that “economic growth is likely to remain weak in the short run but strengthen during the course of the year as inflation comes down.”

7) NORWAY

The Norges Bank raised rates more than expected by 50 bps to a 15-year high of 3.75% on Thursday and aimed for further hikes.

It had hiked by 25 bps at its previous two meetings, but came under pressure to do more as core inflation jumped unexpectedly to a record 6.7% in May.

The worst performer among G10 currencies, the Norwegian crown is down 7% against the dollar this year, adding to inflationary pressures.

8) SWEDEN

Riksbank officials look set to hike rates again by 25 bps to 3.75% at their June 28 meeting.

Swedish inflation has cooled to 6.7%, below the Riksbank’s expectations, but still uncomfortably above its 2% target.

The central bank is in a tricky spot, with Sweden’s property market suffering from higher rates.

9) SWITZERLAND

The Swiss National Bank raised its policy interest rate by 25 bps to 1.75% on Thursday as the central bank pressed ahead to dampen stubborn inflation and left the door open for more tightening.

Even with the Thursday’s rate increase, the SNB forecasts Swiss inflation would remain above its 0-2% target by 2026.

Swiss inflation slowed in May to 2.2% from 2.6% in April.

10) JAPAN

The Bank of Japan remains the world’s most dovish major central bank under new Governor Kazuo Ueda.

It is expected to keep policy ultra-loose at its upcoming meeting on July 27-28. While the BOJ may signal that inflation is overshooting its forecasts, it is very unlikely this would trigger a sudden rate hike.

Ueda on Wednesday reiterated the central bank’s dovish stance to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy.

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