Bears In Charge Of S&P 500; What’s Next?

2022.09.14 11:50

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In my last update (see ), I showed that the ’s immediate bullish upside path had been denied and, with that, two primary possibilities were forming:

1. Rallying the index above last week’s low (SPX4120) will lock in an a-b-c pattern, as already shared in early August (see ). Then we should expect [a] c-wave to ideally around SPX4550.
2. The current price action is a (rare) expanding leading diagonal. It means the SPX should now be in (grey) minute wave-iv, followed by wave-v to complete (green) minor wave-1. Minor waves 2, 3, 4, and 5 should follow, as shown in Figure 1 below.

I concluded by stating:

“If the Bulls can push the SPX back above $4120 …, then EWP option [1] is operable. If they cannot, and the Bears manage an impulse lower from the August high, the[n] path [in option] 2 becomes preferred.”

Figure 1. S&P 500 daily chart with detailed EWP count and several technical indicators

The index topped that same day right inside the ideal (grey) W-iv target zone (SPX4105+/-15) at SPX4018 and dropped the next trading day to SPX3887, which was a bit short of the ideal SPX3800+/-50 target zone for the (grey) W-v.

Nothing says markets must always follow perfect, standard Fibonacci-based Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) patterns. Besides, once the (grey) W-v would complete (green) W-1, I was looking for a bounce back to around SPX4050 for green W-2, followed by a sharp W-3 to the downside.

Yesterday, the index took a horrible sharp turn lower. Thus, it appears most likely that option 2, as now shown in more detail in figure 1 above, is in play.

A break below the early September low of SPX3886 then opens the door for the impulse pattern as shown with an ideal target zone of SPX3515-3400 for (green) W-3/c, then a potential W-4 rally back to ideally SPX3675-3785 followed by the last drop to ideally SPX3230-3330 to complete W-v od W-c of W-A.

There’s a slight nuance to this overall bigger picture W-A, but the anticipated path and downside targets are the same. Hence, I will share it once we get there.

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