Bear Market Anatomy – Revisiting Russell Napier’s Work (Annotated)
2022.04.04 16:35
by Russell Napier is a ” manuscript. Given current market dynamics, a review seems timely. As my colleague, Richard Rosso, CFP, previously penned:
Not surprisingly, after 12-years of Fed interventions, seemingly impenetrable markets, and low yields, investors have become overly complacent. Such is despite repeated warnings to the contrary,
– “No More Recessions
Of course, just 10-months later, the market plunged by 35%.
However, therein lies the lessons from of the “and Russell Napier.
Bears Tend To Die On Low Volume
Using that analysis, we can see volume did pick up during the recent decline. However, volume is far below the 2020 ” suggesting investors remain complacent.
S&P 500-Volume Analysis
Bears Are Tricky
3-Phases Of A Bear Market
Also read: 5-Signs Investors Are Too Bullish
Bears Can Be Tenacious
S&P 500-CAPE Valuation Deviations Vs Market
Also Read: Grantham: We’re In An Epic Bubble
Bears Can Depart Before Earnings Recover
S&P 500 vs GAAP Earnings
Also Read:
Bear Market Damage Can Be Inconceivable
QQQ Trend-Chart
Also Read: A 50% Decline Will Only Be A Correction
Bear Markets End On The Return Of General Price Stability
With prices for commodities still spiking due to economic disruption, the bear market anatomy suggests that until those prices return to normal, the risk is not over.
SPY vs CRB vs Oil
Bear Markets That Don’t Decline On Bad News Is Positive
Depression Years Chronology
Also Read:
Not All Bear Markets Lead The Economy By 6-9 Months
S&P 500 vs GDP
Also Read:
Don’t Discount The Bear Market Anatomy
Throughout history, individuals repeatedly jump into the more speculative stages of the financial market under the assumption that “
Of course, as we now know with the benefit of hindsight, 1929, 1972, 1999, 2007, and 2020, were not different—they were just the peak of speculative investing frenzies.
However, the massive surge in monetary and fiscal stimulus took market speculation to an entirely new level since the pandemic-driven lows.
There are a select group of investors who are revered for their knowledge and success. While we idolize these investors for their respective ” we can also save ourselves time and money by learning from their wisdom and their experiences.
That wisdom was NOT inherited but birthed out of years of mistakes, miscalculations, and trial-and-error. Most importantly, what separates these individuals from all others was their ability to learn from those mistakes, adapt, and capitalize on that knowledge in the future.
Experience is an expensive commodity to acquire, which is why it is always cheaper to learn from the mistakes of others.
We have compiled a collection of those rules, axioms, and pearls of wisdom here: and
We hope you find something useful in them to you navigate whatever comes next.
