Forex analytics and overview

Australian Dollar Takes a Breather After Wild Week

2023.11.17 06:37

MarketPulse

  • Markets see 60% chance of RBA rate hike in H1 of 2024
  • US Treasury yields fall to 4.35%

The has bounced back on Friday after losses a day earlier. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6487, up 0.24%.

It has been a wild week for the Australian dollar, which soared 2% on Tuesday, courtesy of a softer-than-expected US inflation print. The Aussie climbed as high as 0.6525 on Wednesday, its highest level since August 10th and has climbed 1.9% this week.

Is the RBA Done with Tightening?

The Reserve Bank of Australia has been aggressive with its rate hikes, bringing the cash rate to 4.35%. The RBA hiked by a quarter-point earlier this month but is widely expected to pause at the December meeting. Thursday’s employment report was much stronger than expected, with a gain of 55,000 jobs compared to the market consensus of 20,000. The release didn’t have much effect on the RBA rate odds, as the lion’s share of the increase in jobs were part-time positions.

As for 2024, investors aren’t sure what to expect from the RBA after December. The markets have priced in about a 60% chance of a quarter-point hike in the first half of 2024, and key releases such as inflation and employment will play major factors in the RBA’s upcoming rate decisions. Goldman Sachs is more dovish, as it projection that inflation to fall below 3% in late 2024 and isn’t expecting any further rate hikes.

In the US, there were further signs this week that the economy is slowly cooling. Inflation was lower than expected at 3.2% and retail sales surprised to the downside with a 0.1% decline. As well, unemployment claims hit a three-month high at 231,000. US Treasury yields fell on Thursday to 4.45%, down from 4.53%, as speculation continues to rise that the Fed has ended or is very close to ending the current rate-tightening cycle.

AUD/USD-4-Hr Chart

AUD/USD Technical

  • AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6476. Above, there is resistance at 0.6526
  • 0.6408 and 0.6351 are providing support

Original Post

Source link

Related Articles

Back to top button
bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) $ 94,750.39 0.40%
ethereum
Ethereum (ETH) $ 3,418.35 4.28%
tether
Tether (USDT) $ 0.999287 0.01%
xrp
XRP (XRP) $ 2.26 2.69%
bnb
BNB (BNB) $ 693.24 6.82%
solana
Solana (SOL) $ 189.92 5.33%
dogecoin
Dogecoin (DOGE) $ 0.323906 3.70%
usd-coin
USDC (USDC) $ 1.00 0.02%
cardano
Cardano (ADA) $ 0.924839 4.73%
staked-ether
Lido Staked Ether (STETH) $ 3,410.85 4.25%
tron
TRON (TRX) $ 0.252302 3.37%
avalanche-2
Avalanche (AVAX) $ 39.04 6.83%
chainlink
Chainlink (LINK) $ 24.50 11.09%
the-open-network
Toncoin (TON) $ 5.59 3.87%
wrapped-steth
Wrapped stETH (WSTETH) $ 4,058.81 4.13%
sui
Sui (SUI) $ 4.71 9.14%
shiba-inu
Shiba Inu (SHIB) $ 0.000022 4.57%
wrapped-bitcoin
Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) $ 94,571.34 0.35%
polkadot
Polkadot (DOT) $ 7.36 7.83%
stellar
Stellar (XLM) $ 0.370078 3.90%
hedera-hashgraph
Hedera (HBAR) $ 0.291383 9.85%
hyperliquid
Hyperliquid (HYPE) $ 28.36 0.75%
weth
WETH (WETH) $ 3,420.11 4.35%
bitcoin-cash
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) $ 460.38 3.38%
leo-token
LEO Token (LEO) $ 9.35 0.49%
uniswap
Uniswap (UNI) $ 14.27 2.93%
litecoin
Litecoin (LTC) $ 106.49 6.96%
pepe
Pepe (PEPE) $ 0.000018 3.52%
wrapped-eeth
Wrapped eETH (WEETH) $ 3,611.29 4.41%
near
NEAR Protocol (NEAR) $ 5.43 7.94%
bitget-token
Bitget Token (BGB) $ 4.29 3.50%
ethena-usde
Ethena USDe (USDE) $ 0.999344 0.01%
aave
Aave (AAVE) $ 383.39 20.68%
aptos
Aptos (APT) $ 9.71 5.29%
usds
USDS (USDS) $ 0.99764 0.22%
internet-computer
Internet Computer (ICP) $ 10.76 8.47%
crypto-com-chain
Cronos (CRO) $ 0.162358 5.42%
polygon-ecosystem-token
POL (ex-MATIC) (POL) $ 0.500673 5.83%
ethereum-classic
Ethereum Classic (ETC) $ 27.50 5.80%
mantle
Mantle (MNT) $ 1.21 3.90%
render-token
Render (RENDER) $ 7.63 8.73%
vechain
VeChain (VET) $ 0.048665 6.13%
mantra-dao
MANTRA (OM) $ 3.77 1.90%
fetch-ai
Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) $ 1.37 9.27%
bittensor
Bittensor (TAO) $ 484.29 7.62%
monero
Monero (XMR) $ 190.85 0.33%
whitebit
WhiteBIT Coin (WBT) $ 24.38 0.08%
dai
Dai (DAI) $ 1.00 0.01%
arbitrum
Arbitrum (ARB) $ 0.799161 7.15%
filecoin
Filecoin (FIL) $ 5.19 7.44%