Aussie Rises, US Core PCE Price Index Eases

10/27/2023

2 minutes read

2023.10.27 09:44

MarketPulse

AUD/USD extends gains
US Core PCE Prices ticks lower

The is higher on Friday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6350, up 0.42%.

The RBA meets next on November 7th and we are seeing strong swings in RBA rate odds. Just two weeks ago, the probability of a pause was close to 100%, but that has changed dramatically. According to the ASX RBA rate tracker, the odds of a pause are currently at 47%, which means the markets are unsure which way the central bank will go at the meeting.

The RBA would prefer to hold rates at 4.10% for a fifth consecutive time, but inflation remains well above the 2% target at 5.2% (an increase from the previous reading of 4.9%). The is one final tier-1 event prior to the RBA meeting, which is retail sales. If the odds of a rate hike remain close to 50/50, the retail sales reading could be a key factor in the RBA decision.

US GDP Surprises to the Upside

The US economy was expected to have a banner third quarter, but the gain of 4.9% q/q blew past the market consensus of 4.3% and the Q2 gain of 2.1%. This was the fastest growth rate since Q4 of 2021, boosted by strong consumer spending in the third quarter. Interestingly, the sharp rise in GDP hasn’t changed market expectations with regard to rates, which have priced in pauses at the November and December meetings.

The reason that the Fed may not get worked up about the GDP release was the quarterly core PCE Prices release on Thursday. The indicator fell to 2.4% y/y in the third quarter, down from 3.7% in Q2. This print should be encouraging for the Federal Reserve, as it was the lowest reading since the fourth quarter of 2020. The reading was a shade above the market consensus of 2.5%.

On Friday, the US Core PCE Price Index dropped to 3.7% y/y in September, matching the market consensus estimate and down from a revised 3.8% in August. On a monthly basis, the rise of 0.3% also matched the market consensus but was higher than the 0.1% gain in August.

AUD/USD-4-Hour Chart