AUD/USD: Hits New Peak on Solid Job Report While Technicals Suggest 0.6855 Ahead
2024.09.20 06:35
The pair has climbed to a new peak, reaching 0.6815, marking the highest level since 28 December of the previous year. This strength in the Australian dollar is partly due to the aggressive rate cuts by the , which has spurred expectations that other central banks might also ease monetary policies, enhancing the economic outlook and fueling a rally in riskier assets.
This week, significantly outperformed expectations, showing a 47.5k increase in jobs for August, far exceeding the forecasted 25.0k. This robust job growth has kept the steady at 4.2%. Despite this positive economic indicator, the main expectation is that the (RBA) will maintain its interest rate at the current level in its upcoming meeting, with analysts predicting no changes to monetary policy until at least December and possibly not until Q2 of next year. The RBA’s cautious approach to inflation underscores its strategy of not taking decisive action until there is apparent necessity.
Given the current favorable risk environment, the AUD could reach even higher levels soon.
AUD/USD technical analysis
The AUD/USD market is advancing in the fifth wave of growth towards 0.6855. This target will likely be reached soon, followed by a corrective movement to 0.6790, testing it from above. This could define the upper boundary of a new consolidation range. Should the pair break below this range, a further decline to 0.6736 might ensue, potentially signaling the start of a new downward trend towards 0.6640, with a continuation to 0.6590. The MACD indicator, currently at its highs and directed upwards, supports this bullish scenario in the short term.
On the H1 chart, AUD/USD is forming a growth structure towards 0.6855. A short rise to 0.6848 is expected, followed by a slight decline to 0.6825. Upon completion of this minor correction, another growth phase towards 0.6855 is anticipated, which could exhaust the potential of the current growth wave. The Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line above 50 and pointing upwards, corroborates the likelihood of continued upward movement before any significant pullback.
By RoboForex Analytical Department
Disclaimer
Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.
