Attack from Belarus on Ukraine is unlikely at the moment
2023.01.13 05:12
Attack from Belarus on Ukraine is unlikely at the moment
By Kristina Sobol
Budrigannews.com – Despite recent warnings from Kiev, burst river banks, thick mud, and waterlogged fields could be seen for miles around the northwest Ukraine-Belarus border on Thursday, making the possibility of a Russian assault from across the border unlikely for the time being.
As Moscow seeks to revive its faltering invasion, Ukrainian officials have issued warnings of a forthcoming Russian assault, naming Belarus to the north as one potential launchpad.
Russia and Belarus, which is a close ally of Russia, have increased the size of their joint military unit in Belarus and plan to hold joint aviation drills there starting on Monday.
The Volyn territorial defence brigade, one of hundreds of Ukrainian units recruited from locals willing to defend their communities, guards the borderland’s treacherous swamps and thick forests in this context.
The unit’s soldiers and officers told Reuters on the sidelines of training exercises a few kilometers south of the Russian border that the unusually mild winter had given them a significant tactical advantage.
One of the deputy commanders of the brigade, Viktor Rokun, stated, “On your own land, everything will help you defend it – the landscape, lots of rivers, which have burst their banks this year.” His surroundings’ trees and fields were submerged in icy lakes of murky water.
Serhiy Khominskyi, the spokesperson for the unit, stated that an unlikely ally had also assisted in rendering the terrain impassable: the population of local beavers.
He stated, “Normally, people destroy their dams when they build them, but they didn’t this year because of the war, so now there is water everywhere.”
On Tuesday, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the president of Ukraine, issued a warning that Russia was “gathering forces for another escalation” of the nearly 11-month conflict.
In December, the top general of Ukraine issued a warning that Belarus—where Ukraine’s military estimates the presence of 15,000 Russian troops while military analysts estimate 10 to 12,000—could be one of the potential targets of a new assault.
Alexander Lukashenko, the leader of Belarus, let Moscow use his country as a launchpad to invade Ukraine in February, when Russian forces tried to take the capital, Kyiv, but were stopped.
On Thursday, Russian forces in Belarus were inspected by the deputy commander of what Moscow refers to as its “special military operation.” The Volyn brigade was engaged in indoor combat training and came under artillery fire on the Ukrainian side.
According to analyst Konrad Muzyka, who owns the defense consulting firm Rochan Consulting, a Russian troop buildup could be observed in Belarus, but a Belarusian attack on northwestern Ukraine would be extremely difficult.
“It’s a terrible location to carry out an offensive operation. He stated, “There are many watercourses there, but very few roads.”
“This makes it simple for Ukrainian forces to direct the movement of Russian forces into specific areas where they would be shelled by artillery,” the Ukrainian military stated.
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