Asia’s factories perk up on China recovery but Trump risks loom
2024.12.01 23:07
(Reuters) – Asia’s largest manufacturing economies stepped up activity in November, with China’s factories extending their recovery driven in part by Beijing’s stimulus and a rush to export, though weak patches in other parts of the region pointed to some challenges.
Risks to global trade from a second Donald Trump presidency loomed large over factories as investors considered a series of purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) published on Monday, which painted a mixed picture for Asia’s export-reliant economies.
China’s factory activity expanded at the fastest pace in five months in November as new orders, including those from abroad, led to a solid rise in production, the Caixin PMI showed.
That largely echoed a modest expansion in manufacturing activity seen in an official survey released on Saturday, suggesting a blitz of stimulus is finally trickling through to the world’s second-largest economy.
The improvement in China helped other Asian factory powerhouses such as South Korea and Taiwan, where activity also picked up.
Xing Zhaopeng, ANZ’s senior China strategist, said China’s recovery has mostly been export-driven.
“Both new export orders in the official PMI and Caixin PMI suggest buyers were rushing to place orders. But the Chinese domestic demand was still weak as the official non-manufacturing PMI was 50,” said Xing.
Many Chinese exporters are scrambling to get their goods to major markets ahead of tariffs from the U.S. and European Union, which are among several risks policymakers now need to navigate.
Beijing launched a series of major stimulus packages in the second half of this year to arrest a sharp slowdown in spending and production.
While analysts say more is still needed to sustain a sturdier recovery, there are signs this year’s measures have had some effect with retail spending and the property market stabilising.
Overhanging those positive signs, however, is the threat posed to global trade by proposed tariffs from U.S. President-elect Trump, who enters the White House on Jan. 20 next year.
Trump has promised aggressive tariffs on major U.S. trading partners, notably China, in a push to revive American industry and employment.
Last week, he said he would impose a 10% tariff on Chinese goods so that Beijing does more to stop the trafficking of chemicals used in the production of fentanyl, which followed his earlier threats of tariffs in excess of 60% on Chinese goods.
Elsewhere in Asia, conditions worsened with Japan’s PMI reporting the fastest decline in activity in eight months as factories trimmed output on weakening demand.
That was slightly offset by official data that showed Japanese corporate spending on plant and equipment accelerating in the third quarter.
In Southeast Asia, PMIs showed factory activity extending declines in Indonesia and Malaysia and slowing expansion in Thailand and Vietnam.
